Market Set For A Dive?

wiscoaster

wiscoaster

Well-known member
No, I'm still short of bear territory by one percent. Remember, I'm going by my liquid net worth, not market index. I've always done better than the market. And if current housing bubble home market value is added in it's not even that bad. There's more still that needs to come. Today was not a climactic event in the sense of the traditional market "crash". Nobody's jumping out of windows yet, though they may have the sash up. It'll be interesting to see how it rolls around the globe and comes back to kick us in the ass tomorrow morning. I don't think Flag Day is a market holiday, is it? I'd be more worried if it was ....

Too late to sell but too early to buy. Though I'm looking at possibles.
 
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wiscoaster

wiscoaster

Well-known member
OK, officially Bear Market from personal NAV POV ... but, not climactic feel to it yet, so probably more to go. And I was indoctrinated in 1987, so "been there, done that" multiple times, and it's not a "crash" yet. Maybe tomorrow. It is an interesting point to note that Monday is a market and bank holiday, so if something is going to happen, tomorrow and this weekend is going to be a very wide window of high-probability vulnerability.
 
wiscoaster

wiscoaster

Well-known member
It's time to start looking for bargains. Providing you're long term (ie don't need the money for 10 years or more).
 
theotherwaldo

theotherwaldo

Well-known member
I've considered dabbling in stocks.
The problem is, I've got relatives that would kill me for what I've got in my pockets, much less what they could get if I did well in the stock market.
A couple of these wonderful family members specialize in putting their wealthy elders in rest homes and then disposing of all of their elder's possessions.
Another, a coroner, had a large collection of gold teeth that he kept in a baby's coffin until he'd gathered enough to sell.
I've even had one of my sisters put a contract out on me with her musician buddies.
Then, when I ducked out to another state, she sold or disposed of everything that I had to leave behind.
I've lost track of her over the years, but if she's still alive and thought that I had anything of value that she could get... .
 
wiscoaster

wiscoaster

Well-known member
Well, "dabbling" is a sure-fire presciption for getting fleeced. A well-executed plan with sound fundamentals and persistent discipline over a long period of time works. As you've witnessed done by those who had no compunctions about method. Capitalism is what works for the honest and ethical majority, providing they stick with the discipline and the persistence.
 
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LiveLife

LiveLife

Well-known member
theotherwaldo said:
And here comes the dive
Click to expand...
Not quite yet.

DJIA technical chart 50 and 200 day moving averages (MA) are still rising with 50 MA rising ABOVE 200 MA (Bullish signal) - https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui

Dow dropped/tested and formed support at 37,500 in May, 38,000 in June and 38,500 in August forming rising support line (Bullish signal) with RSI oscillating around 30 to 70+, matching price movements.

Until 50 MA dips below 200 MA, I don't think we will see bearish signal.
 
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LiveLife

LiveLife

Well-known member
DJIA ($INDU) drops over 600 points.

Faster 5/30 MA overlay technical chart shows RSI falling not quite off 70 but MACD line falling toward reference line with falling of histogram towards 0 (Bearish indicators) - https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui

If 5 MA falls below 30 MA, will see if previous support of 38,500 is tested and jump back into Large Cap Index fund as RSI rebounds off 30.
 
LiveLife

LiveLife

Well-known member
LiveLife said:
DJIA ($INDU) drops over 600 points.

If 5 MA falls below 30 MA, will see if previous support of 38,500 is tested and jump back into Large Cap Index fund as RSI rebounds off 30.
Click to expand...
DJIA ($INDU) drops 219 points.

5 MA is falling towards 50 MA, RSI falling towards 50 with MACD crossing below reference line and histogram in the negative (Bearish signal with short trigger if holding stocks) - https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui
 
LiveLife

LiveLife

Well-known member
LiveLife said:
theotherwaldo said:
-And here comes the dive...
Click to expand...
Not quite yet.
Click to expand...
Technical DJIA ($INDU) chart with 5/30 day MA (Moving Average) overlay showed on September 9-10, 5 MA line (Blue color) bottomed and rebounded ABOVE 30 MA line (Red color) which is a short-term reversal indicator where RSI oscillates around 30/70 lines. (Reversals are often marked by RSI rebounding off 30% line but also off 50% line) - https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui

5 MA reversal testing support at 40,000 was followed by RSI rebounding off 50% line, MACD crossing above reference line with histogram going from negative to positive (Bullish signal). 5 MA is RISING above 30 MA which is also rising (Bullish signal).

Longer trend 50/200 MA overlay shows both lines are rising which is bullish signal.

Shorter term, RSI is approaching 70% line and we may see retracement off 70 or slightly above.
 
LiveLife

LiveLife

Well-known member
Disclaimer: I am not a professional financial adviser. Please seek professional financial advise before investing your money. What I post on NTT is what I do with my money.

LiveLife said:
Shorter term, RSI is approaching 70% line and we may see retracement off 70 or slightly above.
Click to expand...
DJIA ($INDU) technical chart (Adjust 50/200 MA overlay to faster 5/30 MA) - https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui

RSI peaked just under 70 and falling with 5 day MA (blue line) peaked and starting to fall but 30 day MA (red line) is still rising (Longer term bullish indicator as 5 MA previously rebounded ABOVE 30 MA). Moved 401K fund from Large Cap Index to Cash/Money Market Fund.

MACD is falling ready to cross down reference line with histogram falling to 0 about to go negative (Short term bearish indicator).

Anticipate RSI fall down to 50 and will see if we fall down to 30 before rebound.
 
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LiveLife

LiveLife

Well-known member
Disclaimer: I am not a professional financial adviser. Please seek professional financial advise before investing your money. What I post on NTT is what I do with my money.

WrongHanded said:
I've started watching the stock market pretty closely since the beginnings of the Covid-19 pandemic.

What do you think the future of the market is?
Click to expand...
I have been a hobby technical swing trader and casual student of Elliott Wave Theory for past 25 years and since July of 2020, here's my technical take on DJIA ($INDU) chart simply based on 50/200 day Moving Averages (MA) - https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui
  • In July of 2020 after Covid crash of market, 50 MA line (blue line) continued to rise towards 200 MA line (red line) which was still falling.
  • 50 MA crossed above 200 MA and 200 MA started rising by end of 2020 (Long-term bullish indicator)
  • By end of 2021, 50 MA peaked and by start of 2022, 50 MA started to fall below 200 MA with 200 MA falling also (Long-term bearish indicator)
  • By end of 2022, 50 MA rebounded and by start of 2023, 50 MA has been rising ABOVE 200 MA which is long-term bullish indicator
  • Under Elliott Wave Theory, since Covid fall, we could be at second impulsive wave of complete impulsive/corrective move cycle which means there is another anticipated corrective wave followed by impulsive wave before a market correction takes place.
  • Retired, I no longer swing trade/day trade stocks but now just manage 401K by moving it from Large Cap Index fund to Cash/Money Market fund based on shorter term 5/30 MA indicators as illustrated in previous posts.
  • Short-term approaching 2025, as long as 50 MA rises ABOVE 200 MA, market is trending higher; but as cyclical as market is, anticipate a corrective wave before too long.
  • If you are holding money in 401K/Roth IRA stock fund, holding until 50 MA peaks and falls below 200 MA would be prudent.
DJIA chart 10-24.png
 
theotherwaldo

theotherwaldo

Well-known member
I still go by my family's tradition, which says that stocks are gambling and that you should never gamble with anything that ypo can't afford to lose.
Also, whoever loses, the house always wins.
-Just ask our legislators, who come in poor and leave rich...
 
LiveLife

LiveLife

Well-known member
theotherwaldo said:
I still go by my family's tradition, which says that stocks are gambling and that you should never gamble with anything that [you] can't afford to lose.
Also, whoever loses, the house always wins.
-Just ask our legislators, who come in poor and leave rich...
Click to expand...
Yes, I agree that stock market and wall street are heavily "manipulated" by those in power and pulling the strings on those who are in power all around the globe. ;)

But even working class folks can join them in the market as well.

I got my introduction to stock trading in my teenager years as my electrician stepfather did part-time daytrading and would make several hundred dollars in a matter of seconds with trades of high volume/high momentum stocks and I was intrigued (Market opened at 6:30 AM in the west coast and he would even daytrade pre-market and was often up around 4:30-5:00 AM so I got to see him daytrade before going to school). Taking AP Calculus in High School, I loved math and started studying Elliott Wave Theory and technical stock chart reading in my 20s to better understand stock price movements.

My family built custom houses and grandparents operated a cabinet shop to supply the custom houses being built. Growing up on construction sites and at cabinet shop as child being taught by uncles in woodworking, I thought I may pursue construction but went to college instead after my stint in the Army. My sister and I did attend 2 year Building Trades program after college to pay homage to our family roots where students built a complete house onsite in those 2 years from digging foundation to finish carpentry and painting. Growing up as teenager with electrician stepfather who had several rentals while watching PBS "This Old House", I got to apply renovation skills on the rentals from concrete work, plumbing, electrical and of course, framing and finish carpentry, my family specialty.

By the time I was 26, I bought two houses and a triplex that I was renovating and renting (All the money came from me working and savings). After I married and sold the first house with $120,000 net profit, I bought my wife's dream car Corvette C5 Z06. I worked nights full-time and started daytrading part-time (You needed minimum $30,000 in brokerage account) then later slower swing trading that spanned days to weeks. While my goal daytrading was $1000+, my best single swing trading gain was $32,000 but sleep deprivation, work stress and raising young family took its toll and I had to take a break. I went back to slow renovation/rehabbing of houses I enjoyed (Much less stressful) while pursuing quad riding on sand dunes, 4-Wheeling and camping with family/relatives.

Retired, my casual part-time daily focus is tracking DJIA ($INDU) technical chart for managing my 401K. When I got married, I was putting $1000 a month into 401K which my wife thought was a bit much but I told her she would thank me in 20 years. 401K grew to where it no longer needed to be funded but tracking DJIA ($INDU) technical chart allowed me to move money from Large Cap Index fund while market was up and back to cash/Money Market Fund while market was down so I did not experience loss on a monthly basis.

So while for those who put money in 401K and just leave it there through market ups and downs are "gambling", moving money from stock fund to cash following 50/200 day MA lines and in recent decade for me, faster 5/30 day MA lines became predictable "investment" where monthly gains now surpass double or triple my government pension. (20 years later, my wife did thank me when I told her how much 401K was making on a monthly basis and that she gets to "blow" the money gained in retirement :))
 
theotherwaldo

theotherwaldo

Well-known member
Between having to care for my ne'er-do-well parents, clearing up my and my sister's student loans and dodging my larcenous relatives, accumulating wealth in any real form was not an option for me until recently.
Now that I have minimal housing and transportation and am out of debt, I might consider learning how to play the stocks game, maybe starting after next January 6th...
 
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