Market Set For A Dive?

[WrongHanded]

I've started watching the stock market pretty closely since the beginnings of the Covid-19 pandemic. It seems to have recovered rather quickly to within only a couple hundred points on the S&P. That's a little odd to me, especially considering that prior to Trump getting elected and the subsequent financial repatriation legislation of late 2017, the market prior to Covid was just ridiculously high.

Whilst it's understandable that the election of a business-minded Republican president would increase confidence in the markets, I think the repatriation of offshore funds in the past couple years (and the likelihood of it, in the year before that) is largely the cause of the massive market gains. Which leads me to wonder if the pre-covid highs were really any more than market manipulation on the part of the big corporations buying back their stock to inflated its value before selling it off again at a profit.

In other words, are we just at a false high of a 1000+ points on the S&P and due for a dive? Or is over $3200 just the new norm?

I feel like we're going to see a rapid slide regardless of how things go with Covid-19, and even the election. Though Biden winning and the Senate swinging will certainly make it worse. I feel like the stock market and the jobs market are at odds, and whilst one does not represent the other, the disparity seems out if place.

What do you think the future of the market is?

 

[Dibbs]

Wish I'd been ready, the last time. Next time, I'm def going to be buying low, when everything tanks, like it did the last time.

You shouldn't panic, what primes the pump, is when a bunch of margin investors see some bad news, start crappin' kittens, because they can't cover even a small margin call, let alone the sizable $$ amount they hang in the wind, on the average day. Those margin investors, as I was saying, see some bad news, and just start selling like crazy. What's more messed up, is other people see them selling, and follow suit, and pretty soon, XOM is in negative integers. These aren't intelligent long-term investors, they're more like cattle, in a stampede. None of the cows knows WHY they are running, they are just barreling along, because everybody else is running.

Relax, the market, unfortunately, is driven more by perception, than reality. Which we saw, when the market rebounded, the way it did.

 

[Magnum]

Invest in precious metals- brass & lead.

Really there's no way to predict, if anyone knew they'd become ultra wealthy. There are educated guesses, that plus $1.00 gets you a coke at McDonald's. Best indicator to me is gold, if gold is up- your dollar is worth less. Inflation masks the reality of the market , a stock that was $1 that's now worth $2 may have doubled your money but the candy bar that was .50 is now also $1.50 so really you've gained dollars but lost value. I'm no economist by any stretch but when trump wins in November I think the markets will remain stable, he's good for business & the economy. If by some insane fluke the election is stolen in Biden's favor I think the market is the least of our worries, what you'll eat tomorrow and what will be left of our country will become what we'll need to worry about.

 

[WrongHanded]

@Dibbs , I'm not worried or panicking. I put money in when the S&P hit 2300, and pulled it when it reached just over 3000. I'm waiting to do it again. Interestingly, although the market is close to being back, the economy and society really isn't.

@Magnum , despite Biden being a pathetic candidate, there's a whole lot of hate out there for Trump. And all these social justice warriors, snowflakes, and BLM protestors are much more likely to vote this election than in the last one. I'm sure whichever way it goes, there will still be food in the grocery stores.

 

[Alexx1401]

Only money I have in it is out of my control, couple retirement plans. If the far left does manage to pull of a win here, it will of course drop like a rock. What really worries me more is the out of control printing of money. The problem with this is the education system. We have "dumb'd down the population so badly that a large swath of the voters now demand this "free money". How long we can get away with this god only knows. If it does come crashing down it will be a site to see if that free money and people who have never in their life had to support themselves? With no idea of what supporting themselves is all about they will of course just riot.

 

[Magnum]

Inflation is the toothpaste squeezed from the tube, you may be able to kind of put it back in but it's going to be a huge mess. If you buy a house for $100,000 and you make $50,000 a year - you can afford to pay for it. If you have that same mortgage but some how currency deflates you can now buy a loaf of bread for a nickel or a new car for $1,000 but you'll only make $10,000 a year and it all balances, except for that investment (mortgage or whatever) - you'll never be able to pay it. That crashes every financial institution and drives everyone into debt that could never be paid. The left just wants to make everything free, essentially making the dollar worth nothing, massive inflation that will have the same effect essentially . lenders will easily get all their money for their loans but when they collect their $100,000 it will be enough to buy basically nothing. The best we can do is try to keep everything even and there's no way the fiscal policy of the libturds can ever balance and that's their goal. Drive us into utter poverty so you'll happily take a job from the government and get your food from the government and your housing and all your other necessities. Communism .we all know how that ends.

So yes, I may be a member of the tin foil hat brigade but if that isn't the left's objective then they're dumber than AOC sniffing glue. Biden would regulate all energy sources to the point that business can't operate , what the left doesn't ban they make mandatory- removes free will, crushes the human spirit. They don't even pretend to not be socialist , marxist, communist any more, they've embraced it fully. The masses of brain dead leftist followers that expect their human needs for free think communism is utopia , Biden is their puppet , the guy can't tie his shoes. He's dreaming about corn-pop and drooling on himself, even he can't be that dumb but he is all they've got that maybe a centrist could get behind.

So yes, I do have serious concerns if a lefty gets back in the white house. Economic , social and otherwise. I have no faith in the dollar if a lefty gets in and either does anyone who understands money. Luckily we have a hero, an orange dude named trump- best president of my lifetime.

 

[WrongHanded]

Well @Magnum , you'd better buckle up for safety because I think Biden's got a pretty good chance of winning in November. Whether someone ties his shoelaces for him or not. That's what the independent polling data is suggesting anyway.

 

[Magnum]

Well @Magnum , you'd better buckle up for safety because I think Biden's got a pretty good chance of winning in November. Whether someone ties his shoelaces for him or not. That's what the independent polling data is suggesting anyway.

I disagree. I think no chance. I see the polls too, same as I saw the polls for killery. I don't know anyone who voted trump in 2016 that won't vote for him again, the support and approval of his base is stronger than ever and he certainly picked up some other voters that have seen what he's done with his first term. Polls are always twisted, poll 1000 people in California and you'll see unanimous lefty support, take the same poll in Nebraska and it looks completely different. Polls done by survey online are biased by the content their attached to or the audience it's geared toward. Reported by the media that hates trump with vigor. I'll honestly be shocked if trump loses, I don't care if he's 30 points behind going into November , the source is biased and intended to sway opinion. I'm realistic but I just can't see how trump could lose.

 

[WrongHanded]

I disagree. I think no chance. I see the polls too, same as I saw the polls for killery. I don't know anyone who voted trump in 2016 that won't vote for him again, the support and approval of his base is stronger than ever and he certainly picked up some other voters that have seen what he's done with his first term. Polls are always twisted, poll 1000 people in California and you'll see unanimous lefty support, take the same poll in Nebraska and it looks completely different. Polls done by survey online are biased by the content their attached to or the audience it's geared toward. Reported by the media that hates trump with vigor. I'll honestly be shocked if trump loses, I don't care if he's 30 points behind going into November , the source is biased and intended to sway opinion. I'm realistic but I just can't see how trump could lose.

Well, we're gonna find out soon enough.

 

[Alexx1401]

Well @Magnum , you'd better buckle up for safety because I think Biden's got a pretty good chance of winning in November. Whether someone ties his shoelaces for him or not. That's what the independent polling data is suggesting anyway.

While the thought of what will happen if Joe wins makes me cringe, many seem to have VERY short memories. Who was a shoo in, landslide, going to win all 50 states 4 years ago??? Had ALL the polling said so a couple weeks before the election??? I love watching the tape of the "smart people" rolling on the floor in laughter when it was suggested Trump may win. After all the polls said she was already in. Then when she lost badly she was so distraught she would not come out of her room to say thanks to the supporters. Well here we go again. Race is over, Joe won, everyone say home. Sure.???

 

[WrongHanded]

I started another thread about Trump and the election. Hopefully we can keep this one in track.

Anyone notice how the S&P had never reached much above $1500 in it's entire history until (I think) mid to late 2015. Before Covid hit the market it was at $3400. Think of how much money was pumped in, to more than double the market worth in 4 years. That's not 401K money we're talking about. That's Billionaire and Repatriations money. It's kind of scary really.

 

[TomJ]

My youngest son has 5 years until he starts college and I'm in my late 50's and closing in on retirement age, although I plan to keep working as long as I'm able. Everything I have in the market is invested pretty conservatively. I'm pulling everything out in October as I don't know that I have time to recover if Biden is elected and the market drops. If Trump wins it'll go back in the market. If Biden does it'll stay out.

 

[WrongHanded]

My youngest son has 5 years until he starts college and I'm in my late 50's and closing in on retirement age, although I plan to keep working as long as I'm able. Everything I have in the market is invested pretty conservatively. I'm pulling everything out in October as I don't know that I have time to recover if Biden is elected and the market drops. If Trump wins it'll go back in the market. If Biden does it'll stay out.

What's amazing is that just going by the S&P, the market is basically back where it was. The economy is far from it. I'm not sure what's propping up the market other than shear faith.

 

[TomJ]

What's amazing is that just going by the S&P, the market is basically back where it was. The economy is far from it. I'm not sure what's propping up the market other than shear faith.

I'm far from an economist so take this with a grain of salt, but I have customers in most major vertical markets, almost all of who have done very well under President Trump compared to the strugles they experienced under President Obama. This is also annecdotal evidence, but the job market has been booming, at least based on what I've seen. Someone more knowledable than me can answer this, but have tax cuts and reduced regulations played a part in this?

 

[WrongHanded]

I'm far from an economist so take this with a grain of salt, but I have customers in most major vertical markets, almost all of who have done very well under President Trump compared to the strugles they experienced under President Obama. This is also annecdotal evidence, but the job market has been booming, at least based on what I've seen. Someone more knowledable than me can answer this, but have tax cuts and reduced regulations played a part in this?

To what extent the tax cuts have had an effect, I'm not sure.

I agree that the economy was booming pre-covid. But it's down last quarter by something like 32%(?). The market is back up to very nearly where it was. That disparity is very strange to me. Is it not strange to you?

 

[TomJ]

To what extent the tax cuts have had an effect, I'm not sure.

I agree that the economy was booming pre-covid. But it's down last quarter by something like 32%(?). The market is back up to very nearly where it was. That disparity is very strange to me. Is it not strange to you?

It is strange and I won’t pretend to understand it.

 

[Magnum]

But it's down last quarter by something like 32%(?)

If it were extrapolated out to 12 months , it's media painting it in the worst possible light. If assessed as a quarter (which is the correct way to look at it)it's around 10% down, not as bad but not good either.

 

[TomJ]

I have the Fox Business Channel on in the background while I'm working, and it sounds like the stimulus packages they've passed and will most likely pass are at least in part propping things up. The debt bubble that's been building for years and that our kids will be left with can't continue without serious consequences.

 

[WrongHanded]

If it were extrapolated out to 12 months , it's media painting it in the worst possible light. If assessed as a quarter (which is the correct way to look at it)it's around 10% down, not as bad but not good either.

Just for clarification, I was talking about the economy, as in GDP. From everything I've seen, it was down massively last quarter.

Redirect Notice

Check out what Fox is reporting on it.

 

[Magnum]

Fast forward to 10:00.