Market Set For A Dive?

WrongHanded

Active member
Fast forward to 10:00.
So Fox News Network vs Fox Business? Did I miss the bit where she explains where she got the 9.5% drop figure from? Is that even real news, or is it just a political talk show on the Fox New Network, called 'The Ingraham Angle'? You're going to put more faith in that than in Fox Business?
 

TomJ

Member
So Fox News Network vs Fox Business? Did I miss the bit where she explains where she got the 9.5% drop figure from? Is that even real news, or is it just a political talk show on the Fox New Network, called 'The Ingraham Angle'? You're going to put more faith in that than in Fox Business?
Is the difference that Laura Ingraham referenced a 9.5% drop on a quarterly basis versus the article from Fox Business referencing a drop of 32.9% based on an annual rate?
 

WrongHanded

Active member
Is the difference that Laura Ingraham referenced a 9.5% drop on a quarterly basis versus the article from Fox Business referencing a drop of 32.9% based on an annual rate?
If you read even the first paragraph of the article I linked, you'll see they're claim 33% drop for the second quarter. April-June.
 

TomJ

Member
If you read even the first paragraph of the article I linked, you'll see they're claim 33% drop for the second quarter. April-June.
I pasted it below. Again, the 33% drop is the annual rate. I don't know the answer to this and am wondering if the difference is based on the terminology "annual rate" versus the economy dropping 9.5% on a "quarterly basis" as Laura Ingraham stated. Either way, it's no surprise that we've seen a significant drop with so many businesses being shut down and the unemployment rate being what it is. I don't know that anyone can argue that things are good economically now due to the virus.


WASHINGTON — The U.S. economy shrank at a dizzying 33% annual rate in the April-June quarter — by far the worst quarterly plunge ever — when the viral outbreak shut down businesses, throwing tens of millions out of work and sending unemployment surging to 14.7%, the government said Thursday.

The Commerce Department’s estimate of the second-quarter decline in the gross domestic product, the total output of goods and services, marked the sharpest such drop on records dating to 1947. The previous worst quarterly contraction, a 10% drop, occurred in 1958 during the Eisenhower administration.
 

WrongHanded

Active member
I pasted it below. Again, the 33% drop is the annual rate. I don't know the answer to this and am wondering if the difference is based on the terminology "annual rate" versus the economy dropping 9.5% on a "quarterly basis" as Laura Ingraham stated. Either way, it's no surprise that we've seen a significant drop with so many businesses being shut down and the unemployment rate being what it is. I don't know that anyone can argue that things are good economically now due to the virus.


WASHINGTON — The U.S. economy shrank at a dizzying 33% annual rate in the April-June quarter — by far the worst quarterly plunge ever — when the viral outbreak shut down businesses, throwing tens of millions out of work and sending unemployment surging to 14.7%, the government said Thursday.

The Commerce Department’s estimate of the second-quarter decline in the gross domestic product, the total output of goods and services, marked the sharpest such drop on records dating to 1947. The previous worst quarterly contraction, a 10% drop, occurred in 1958 during the Eisenhower administration.
Tom, I apologize. You are correct.
 

WrongHanded

Active member
Absolute numbers aside - and I concede once again that I was mistaken - I still do find it concerning that the economy and unemployment rate don't line up with the resurgence in the stock market. Time will tell, I have no doubt. Just doesn't make much sense to me.
 

Golf-21-Bravo

New member
My youngest son has 5 years until he starts college and I'm in my late 50's and closing in on retirement age, although I plan to keep working as long as I'm able. Everything I have in the market is invested pretty conservatively. I'm pulling everything out in October as I don't know that I have time to recover if Biden is elected and the market drops. If Trump wins it'll go back in the market. If Biden does it'll stay out.
I think that’s wise but how about buying back in if Biden wins? There could be some good deals and you’d have liquid funds ready to go. I’m considering this myself.
 

TomJ

Member
I think that’s wise but how about buying back in if Biden wins? There could be some good deals and you’d have liquid funds ready to go. I’m considering this myself.
I won’t know the answer to that until all results are in. Who controls the House and Senate will play into it as well.
 

George P

Well-known member
I know from talking to my financial guy, that he is selling so,e stuff now and acquiring cash. he is also setting up 8 different modeling scenarios - if Trump wins, if Biden wins, and then the permutations of who controls the House and Senate. This will give him a good idea what stocks to buy and what to stay away from. He has my 401K not only back to pre-Covid levels, it is up about 20% over that; so yes, I am expecting a market correction as we get closer to election day.
 

Zendude

New member
Aside from personal finances, I’m nervous about the general condition the national economy. At this point, the question is probably not whether a recession hits but how bad is it going to get. We are on the front end, and when the newly unemployed burn through their benefits and cash reserves, that’s when we are going to see the foreclosures and much more government spending on Medicaid and other programs. I guess the general question will be how long it takes the economy to rehire all the workers. Small businesses may not come back for a long time. The economy is more globalized now than ever, so there are alot of variables that didn’t exist in the past.
 
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