Normal May Be A Long Way Off

WrongHanded

Well-known member
How long do you think it'll be til things are back to normal?

I'm guessing summer of 2021 for general society, and maybe 2022 for an economic recovery. I'm also guessing after the curve is flattened somewhat and we try to "reopen for business" we'll see another major outbreak, or possibly even more than one.
 

Justin T.

Member
Agreed. I firmly believe in the time frames above, and will raise you by saying oil is going to be in the crapper for a very long time. A year at least. Maybe 18 months. The job losses will be a bloodbath.
 

climbnjump

Active member
The phrase "new normal" is, I think, overused. But in our current situation, it probably really does apply.

I'm not sure that we'll ever return to what was considered normal a couple of months ago. But I'm not sure that we won't either.

However, there is much happening now - things that aren't apparent at the surface or on the front page of the news - that will have significant and long lasting repercussions. Even the smartest people out there - and I'm certainly NOT in that group - don't really have any idea of where we're heading.

But that doesn't mean the future is going to be "dark" or bad, just different. In the longer term, people are remarkably adaptable and resilient so eventually, I think we'll have "normal" again. It just won't be the normal that we've been used to.
 

thegunguy

Administrator
Staff member
I'm struggling with this. I've been looking at it from a "when do I put money into the market" perspective, but this is a complex topic.

Off the top of my head, we need to think through:
  • Can people be reinfected by this virus? That's unclear. What about mutations of the virus, because there are a few going around now.
  • If folks can be reinfected, even by a mutated version, can we really create a vaccine? Or will it be like seasonal flu, just with a bigger death rate?
  • What's happened to the business make-up of the country? Lots of small businesses are failing, and a few companies (like Dollar General, Amazon, Wal-Mart, CostCo) are doing really well - I think Wal-Mart's sales are up ~ 15% since this thing started. That's not good for salaries.
  • What is the market going to do? How are life insurance and pension funds going to do in this new market? If the market really tanks will we see a generational change in investment patterns from people living through this, like we saw after the great depression?
  • Housing markets too. There's still so much that's not known about how property management companies are doing.
It's just weird. Watching the market is just...weird. I can't think of a time when government mandate has essentially shut down a significant chunk of our economy, leaving millions unemployed. I'm not saying it's right or wrong - just that it's unprecedented, and we live in a complex society where even simple decisions have effects nobody can really predict.

Interesting times, regardless.
 

climbnjump

Active member
If folks can be reinfected, even by a mutated version, can we really create a vaccine? Or will it be like seasonal flu, just with a bigger death rate?

It may be somewhat morbid to consider it this way, but even if folks can be reinfected and a vaccine is only marginally effective, the death rates from this one will decline over time. The reason being that the most vulnerable will be "taken" in the first waves. Subsequent waves will have fewer and fewer highly vulnerable people to infect.

Some states publish pretty good data on what's going on - Minnesota is one example. As of yesterday, April 14, there have been 87 deaths. The median age of the deceased is (also) 87. So about 43 folks who have passed are 87 or older. We don't know how many of the others were, say, 75 to 87, but probably a significant percentage of the other 43.

This is sad, especially if one of them is a friend or relative, but when these folks were born, their average life expectancy was probably only in the low 70's. My own Father is 88. Thankfully, he is pretty healthy. But he has said for years now that he never expected to live this long and he considers every new day to be living on "borrowed time".
 

theotherwaldo

Well-known member
My own Father is 88. Thankfully, he is pretty healthy. But he has said for years now that he never expected to live this long and he considers every new day to be living on "borrowed time".
I know what he means.
Doctors implied that I wouldn't live to graduate from high school, but I did that 45 years ago.
It's all gravy!
 

theotherwaldo

Well-known member
Yeah, it probably would have been hard to graduate if things had gone as the doctors had predicted: I'd have been in a wheelchair, unable to raise my arms, hold up my head or hold a pencil - if I were still alive... .
 

.44 Associate

Active member
It may be somewhat morbid to consider it this way, but even if folks can be reinfected and a vaccine is only marginally effective, the death rates from this one will decline over time. The reason being that the most vulnerable will be "taken" in the first waves. Subsequent waves will have fewer and fewer highly vulnerable people to infect.

Some states publish pretty good data on what's going on - Minnesota is one example. As of yesterday, April 14, there have been 87 deaths. The median age of the deceased is (also) 87. So about 43 folks who have passed are 87 or older. We don't know how many of the others were, say, 75 to 87, but probably a significant percentage of the other 43.

This is sad, especially if one of them is a friend or relative, but when these folks were born, their average life expectancy was probably only in the low 70's. My own Father is 88. Thankfully, he is pretty healthy. But he has said for years now that he never expected to live this long and he considers every new day to be living on "borrowed time".

A significant component of herd immunity is "A lot of the folks susceptible to it are already dead". I believe that Covid will indeed become a feature of the landscape, similar to influenza. We never will be rid of it and it will continue to kill the susceptible, just like flu does. The real questions are 1. What is an "acceptable" level of Covid deaths, and 2. How long does it take for us to get there?
 

wiscoaster

Well-known member
How long do you think it'll be til things are back to normal?
Depends what you mean by "normal".

If you mean "pre-pandemic" then the answer is NEVER.

If you mean going about your daily activities without being obligated to observe special considerations and precautions for the fear of catching or spreading Covid-19 then the right answer should be NOW. The pandemic is over, and has been over for some time.

What you see now is probably what you get for "new normal" for some time to come and has nothing to do with killing SARS-CoV-2.
 
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Take a look at the World Economic Forum and read up on "The Great Reset".

This experiment was an overall success, we're not going back to pre-2019.

I'm already hearing from co workers who have decided to be lab rats and now that they've been told they can "shed their masks" that when they go out to stores most people are still wearing masks, and they don't understand why.


It was never about a virus.
 

theotherwaldo

Well-known member
Yep.
They needed a good panic to drive the sheep together and the Chinese provided one that was probably better than they hoped for.
Regardless, I've been a good lab rat and took my medicine. Now I can run and play with the other lab rats.
Coincidentally, they told us to take down the "masks required" signs today at my place of business.
Now we can ALL go and play... .
 

wiscoaster

Well-known member
...

It was never about a virus.
IMO the virus was to be the catalyst for effecting the reset, but it got out of the lab early, before the reset was quite ready, so while they're scrambling to get it done I think in the end it's going to fail. Efforts to fundamentally change basic human nature and thus culture and society always fail or fall short in the end.
 

theotherwaldo

Well-known member
I still think that it was being "improved" to take out the nation of India and some of the Chinese clinical staff accidentally caught it.
They went to the local hospital and it spread from there.

The "improved" version is being spread through India right now... .
 
I think there is little doubt that the virus originated in the Wuhan lab and that gain of function research was being done ( with Fauci's help). I don't believe it was released intentionally. The truth was and is being covered up and most if not all evidence has likely been destroyed.
 

theotherwaldo

Well-known member
-One of the main reasons for the destruction of the evidence is the included documentation of the differences between the virus as found in nature and the virus that escaped the lab... .
 

roscoe

Well-known member
Take a look at the World Economic Forum and read up on "The Great Reset".

This experiment was an overall success, we're not going back to pre-2019.

I'm already hearing from co workers who have decided to be lab rats and now that they've been told they can "shed their masks" that when they go out to stores most people are still wearing masks, and they don't understand why.


It was never about a virus.

Sure it was. There was a pandemic, science responded, and now we are returning to normal. I am in a blue state and don't wear a mask. I got a vaccination and, so far, am not under 5G mind control. People go about their normal course of business, and the economy is coming back. There is even ammunition returning to the shelves - I just saw 35 boxes of .40 at Bass Pro Shop. I also saw .223 green-tip.

This was always the way it was going to go. Crisis-> response -> return to normal. As it has been throughout US history. No coup. No Orwellian nightmare. No jackbooted thugs taking dissidents.

Just a bunch of handwaving from folks whose presidential candidate lost the election.
 

roscoe

Well-known member
IMO the virus was to be the catalyst for effecting the reset, but it got out of the lab early, before the reset was quite ready, so while they're scrambling to get it done I think in the end it's going to fail. Efforts to fundamentally change basic human nature and thus culture and society always fail or fall short in the end.

What do you mean, specifically? What is the Great Reset? And who was doing the resetting?

I ask as I return from Bass Pro with ammunition from now-filling shelves, not having worn a mask, and having paid to fill my tank pretty much what I paid pre-pandemic.
 
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