Looks like 2024 election is repeat of 2020 (Biden vs Trump) with some differences


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The Hill: High school boys are trending conservative - https://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/4125661-high-school-boys-are-trending-conservative/
  • A popular narrative suggests young people are liberal and getting more liberal. Thus, social media buzzed when a chart surfaced ... that seemed to suggest 12th-grade boys had become overwhelmingly conservative ... striking shift in the political views of boys.
  • Nowadays, it is girls who are drifting to the left. The share of 12th-grade girls who identified as liberal rose from 19 percent in 2012 to 30 percent in 2022. Only 12 percent of girls identified as conservative
  • Young women, too, are trending liberal. Women ages 18 to 29 are more likely to identify as liberal now than at any time in the past two decades,
  • Jean Twenge, an author and professor of psychology at San Diego State University, presented the data in her new book ... “Among liberals, the future is female,” she wrote. “And among conservatives, the future is male.”
  • ... More broadly, the conservative wing of the Republican party has made pointed appeals to disaffected men of all ages.

Wow ... It's refreshing to have a real "adult" conversation about why young male voters are turning conservative while young female voters are turning liberal and to have these guests act civil instead of shouting over each other.

Bill Maher: Ann Coulter, Van Jones, Dr. Jean Twenge

Another wow when Ted Cruz gets applauds by Maher audience ... Discussion on parties changing starting at 2:20 minute of video ... At 7:40 minute of video Ted talks about Iran and Hamas ... "Biden is responsible for $100 Billion going to Ayatollah ... Iran funds Hamas ... He wants to kill Americans ... Don't give money to terrorists who wanna kill us" to loud applauds ... AND Maher agrees! :oops:(y)

And why are Americans rallying for terrorists who oppress rights of women, minorities, LGBTQ? (5:10 minute of video)

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Undecided South Carolina voters reveal their true thoughts before "Ingraham" Trump town hall (Their top concerns are border and immigration):
  • Drugs/Fentanyl are coming across the border
  • Resources being used for the migrants could be used to help homeless
  • Logistics of finding the migrants after they are allowed into the country - How are we going to find them before they commit a crime?
  • Border wall needs to be finished. "Would you allow a stranger into your house?"
When Ingraham asked Biden requested $60 Billion for Ukraine ($160 Billion running total) while Trump asked for $5 Billion for the wall and who would support funding war in Ukraine, 4/5 didn't support and 1 was not sure and wanted accountability of where the money was going.

Inflation was next concern. When asked about Biden/Trump's age, some felt younger candidates should be allowed to run. Energy independence was next concern and most felt Keystone pipeline should be open.

Instead of Trump focused on getting back at what happened, they want to hear what Trump will do to turn the country around, policies on moving forward, how he is going to bring inflation down as they can't feed as many people as they used to.

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Ingraham townhall with Trump

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Continued from post #21 - https://notechtyranny.com/index.php...mp-with-some-differences.336/page-2#post-9605

With increasing number of Gen Z becoming voter age, will this affect outcome of future elections?

Why are young men abandoning the political left?

Recent data seems to show young men skewing more and more conservative and women more progressive. Why? Well, to my eyes, there's one major factor and a few others that are generating this shift. Listen in.​

(00:00:00) - Intro​
(00:01:02) - What factors into this?​
(00:02:18) - What happens for men in some progressive circles​
(00:04:27) - And what happens for men in conservative circles​
(00:07:24) - Other reasons impacting this shift​
(00:12:35) - We’ve attached gender roles to political ideologies​

Why are young men becoming more conservative as young women become more progressive?

Chief Data Reporter at the Financial Times John Burn-Murdoch joins Andrew Marr to discuss his viral report on the ideological divide that's emerging between young men and women in many countries around the world. The findings show a huge point difference in political views between women aged 18-30 compared to their male counterparts.​
Murdoch outlines some of the key factors influencing this division, including the rise of the #MeToo movement and an increase in women going to university – emphasising that this may lead to lower birth and marriage rates in the future.​
According to the study, all of this is "exacerbated by the fact that the proliferation of smartphones and social media mean that young men and women now increasingly inhabit separate spaces and experience separate cultures."​
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Border security likely may be "THE" issue for 2024 election

7.2 million illegals entered US under Biden, more than population of 36 states, CBP reports (Jump to 2:00 minute of video)
So the Fox News reporting of 7.2 million illegals entering US under Biden being more than population of 36 states has been fact checked by Snopes to be true. :oops:

Fact Check: It's Claimed that 7.2M Migrants Have Illegally Crossed the US Border Under Biden, Exceeding the Populations of 36 States - https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/million-migrants-border-biden/
Claim: As of January 2024, more than 7.2 million migrants had illegally crossed into the U.S. over the Southwest border during U.S. President Joe Biden's administration — a number higher than the individual populations of 36 states.​
Rating: True​
... data from a Fox News article ... headline read, "7.2M illegals entered the US under Biden admin, an amount greater than population of 36 states." This claim was true ... more than 7.2 million immigrants specifically reflected border encounters with U.S. officials, according to data provided on the U.S. Customs and Border Protection website.​
... Statistics on "Gotaways" - From ... October 2020 through September 2023, around 1,589,155 "gotaways" were recorded by Border Patrol for the Southwest border. This was in addition to the 7.2 million-plus encounters recorded by officials — not just detected — along the Southwest border.​
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Reuters - 2023 Year in Review: Four reasons why Trump could win in 2024
  1. Unhappy voters - With wages not keeping up with cost of living/housing, many voters do not believe economy is better under Biden.
  2. Fear factor - Many believe country is becoming more progressive leaning with pursuit of the "American dream" out of their reach. There's growing concern over border/migrant crisis, crime, etc.
  3. Unfit for office? - Despite numerous legal issues, Trump's polling has been improving.
  4. Blame Biden - Trump's "America first" message may resonate with voters who feel country is worse off under Biden's policies of border/immigration, foreign wars, push for green energy/EV, etc.
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New York Times - Biden is old

Politico - Biden is old

The Hill: Biden LIES In a Black Church as His Approval Ratings CRATER
  • Younger voters are very concerned about genocide in Gaza and vehemently disagrees with Biden policy
  • Biden is disconnected with younger voters
  • Black voters are increasingly questioning what Biden/Democrat party has done for black communities
  • (Biden calling KKK member senator Byrd "mentor" was fact checked and keeps resurfacing ... Long list of democrats were KKK members or supporters < Much shorter list for republicans >)
  • DNC is now party of corporations and rich elite and no longer aligned with working class voters
  • Younger/Black voters no longer want to accept the "status quo" of politics in 2024 and want to replace black "puppet" leaders who have been misleading black voters
  • Biden's quote, "You ain't black if you don't vote for me" is a laughing joke among blacks
  • Bernie Sanders has done more for black/younger voters than Biden
  • Younger/black voters support third party bid to represent their interests

"REPUBLICAN PARTY IS NOT THE ENEMY": Black conservatives voice top issues for 2024
  • "Biden and radial left ... threw black Americans overboard"
  • "Economy is biggest concern right now"
  • "You can't fool what happened at the grocery store"
  • "Biden's border policies are putting illegal immigrants ahead of black community"
  • "Black voters are waking up to what the Democrat party has been doing to us for so many years"
  • Illegal immigration likely maybe the issue that will blow up the election as blacks were told there isn't funding for rec centers/inner city black youths/unemployed blacks and now they have all the funding for illegal immigrants getting help with jobs/housing/food ... this is not liked much by black voters
  • During 2016-2019, Trump was pretty good to black community
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Illinois already spent over a BILLION DOLLARS on immigrants and residents are angry at mayor/governor to where "We are going to vote Republican this year and turn our backs on the Democrats" ... "After lifetime of voting Democrat, I will be voting Republican for the first time in my life ... We are looking for change".

FIERY: Citizen After Citizen Excoriates Chicago Mayor, City Council Over Migrants - "Black people need help ... You wanted to be sanctuary city ... This is disgraceful for black people ... They hate you for what you are doing ... Black people ... young black people ... are losing in this city"



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Here are some latest polling numbers and voter sentiments, particularly from swing states:

Former President Donald Trump leads President Joe Biden in many swing states ahead of the November election, according to new polling from Emerson and The Hill.

A new CBS News poll finds that voters are remembering former President Donald Trump's economy as good, which is boosting his lead in the potential 2024 matchup with President Biden.



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Supreme Court ruled unanimously that states have no authority to remove Donald Trump from the 2024 presidential ballot - https://www.politico.com/news/2024/...trump-from-ballot-supreme-court-says-00144673

Latest Bloomberg polls confirmed other polling results with Trump surging ahead of Biden.

"100,000 uncommitted voters were so dissatisfied with Biden that they showed up to vote in the primary ... Imagine if 100,000 uncommitted voters showed up on election day and voted for third party candidate or candidate other than Biden?"​
"Update ... Trump's legal troubles ... They seem to be miraculously clearing in some ways ... which is another bad sign for Biden ... Supreme Court may hand down a narrowly tailored ruling that president must have gone through the Congress impeachment process ... And Trump was never convicted of what happened on January 6th ... or to change the outcome of an election" [And the Supreme Court just ruled that Trump could not be removed from the ballot] "And Georgia case revealed text messages of relationship ... that were exchanged before the appointment ... And even the more liberal judges are ... seemingly siding with Trump ..."​
"At the end of the day ... voters are not making the decision on that" [Trump legal troubles]​

The Hill - Poll: Biden TRAILS Trump in EVERY SINGLE Swing State, RFK Jr. BLAZES Onto The Ballot in GA & AZ



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I don't think that they'll have enough mail-in ballot printers this time... .
Things are definitely going to be different this time around for sure. ;)

Biden vs Trump ... with some differences
  • Voters would have actually experienced 4 years under each president by November election
  • There were many campaign promises made by each and voters will assess personally how those promises were delivered or not delivered and how they were affected
  • Trump ran on "Build the wall" as core of campaign focus and this is resonating loud and clear in 2024
  • While Covid lockdown did quite a bit to affect economy, unemployment, supply chain, inflation, etc., grocery store price increase from 2020 to 2024 will likely be pinned on Biden whether he effectively caused the increase or not in many voters' minds/pocket books
  • Immigration surge to 8 million to break the backs of sanctuary states and cities to where now residents no longer want to be "sanctuary cities" is definitely pinned on Biden border policy change
  • Since 2020, immigration policies have changed around the world with many EU countries now doing complete reversal from open borders to closed borders with deportations
  • While many may sympathize with support for legal/illegal immigrants, contrast with lack of support for existing and long standing homeless, especially for blacks and veterans after $52 million debit cards to non-citizens is angering many voters as partiality shown towards immigrants over citizens.
  • Regardless of position on immigration, many cities/states are overwhelmed and simply running out of state/federal funding which has resulted in shelter/hotel/motel housing closures and end of benefits that will likely produce negative effects in local communities
  • While more crude was pumped during Biden years than Trump years, Obama/Biden did not support/shut the Keystone pipeline which Trump supported and championed and "Drill baby, drill" credit will go to Trump in many voters' minds - https://www.vox.com/22306919/biden-keystone-xl-trudeau-oil-pipeline-climate-change
  • Trump ran on "Get US out of NATO" and to have EU countries pay more of their share will resonate with younger/Anti-Israel in Gaza/Anti-Ukraine war protesters as Trump will likely push for ending "genocide" in Gaza with peaceful resolution, ending war funding in Ukraine with push to have EU countries provide greater funding and/or negotiate a peaceful end of war with Russia (Instead of current escalation by EU countries like Germany)
  • Trump also ran on anti-China policy and increased tariffs on trade will likely financially affect China to force negotiated concession on other issues globally while pro-China Biden may not be seen as favorably by many voters especially with increasing hostility by China against Taiwan to where many manufacturing/production shifted to (Harbor Freight is now mostly "Made in Taiwan" shifted from "Made in China")
  • Biden DOJ/ATF has fractured gun rights/pro 2A crowd into a single issue voters and historic record setting number of gun sales/increase in gun ownership will likely reflect voting sentiment
  • After "stealing" two primaries from Bernie Sanders in 2016/2020, DNC may lose support of progressives, especially Palestine sympathetic/anti-genocide supporters to push for third party candidate which will negatively affect Biden vote numbers. 100,000 "uncommitted" voters in protest maybe the "writing on the wall" for 2024 election - https://slate.com/news-and-politics...-israel-biden-uncommitted-protest-voters.html
  • Even after Supreme Court reversal on Roe v Wade and going to the states, abortion right issue is further down the swing voter poll priority behind border/immigration and economy.
  • Supreme Court voting 9-0 unanimously to allow Congress to remove president may make legal troubles less of an issue/moot for many voters
  • Regardless what bi-coastal majority mob wants to impose on the rest of the country, it's the key swing states and swing voters who will ultimately decide on the outcome of the election in 2024
And there are many more differences from 2020 election.

Depending on how things play out, especially economy by November, Trump may be the next president.
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