Looks like 2024 election is repeat of 2020 (Biden vs Trump) with some differences

LiveLife

LiveLife

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Disclaimer: In case you are wondering, when I reached voting age "thinking" the Republican party embraced the "Constitutional republic" electoral college representational form of government the founders chose in 1776 to protect equal constitutional/Bill of Rights of all citizens in all states, regardless of population size; as "Pure democracy" popular vote form of government would allow majority mob rule to impose on the rights of minority (It's been done to slaves and women and now being done to minority gun owners by the majority mob rule).

But after 2016/2020 elections, I no longer felt we have two political party system in the US rather uni-party (Government by special interest/corporations/big donors/Super PAC, etc. and not by "We the People") made to "appear" like two parties and like "Chevy vs Ford", "We the People" are now made to engage in fractured debates unwilling to consider the other side's arguments and presidential elections are now decided by several swing state voters. ;) ... sad but true.


Here's an interesting update referencing latest polls - https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/

Will things be different this time around?

1/20/24 David Pakman Show: "Trump RECORD SUPPORT, BIden NEW LOW in disturbing poll - Concerning new polls show Joe Biden with a low approval rating and losing in head-to-head matchups against all of the potential Republican challengers"
 
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LiveLife

LiveLife

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Since US presidential elections are mainly determined by several "swing states", I have followed Engagious swing voter project which interviews swing voters in key swing states throughout the year and here's the latest (Jump to 1:20 minute for student loan and 3:00 minute for economy):


Full interview of Nevada Trump-to-Biden swing voters:

0:20 - Economy
2:52 - Border (4:45 Comments on how Biden handled the border issue)
6:00 - Biden on Trump
9:15 - Trump eligibility under 14th amendment

 
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LiveLife

LiveLife

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These were top issues that concerned the most for Nevada Trump-to-Biden swing voters:

- Inflation (Definite majority)
- Crime/safety
- Immigration
- Wages not enough for cost of living/unemployment
- Job security
- Israel/Hamas war
- US paying too much to other countries
- Congressional ineptitude


These were top issues that concerned the most for NC Trump-to-Biden swing voters:

- Inflation
- Economy
- Aide to Ukraine
- War
- Congress inability


These were top issues that concerned the most for AZ Trump-to-Biden swing voters:

- Inflation
- Economy/National debt
- Crime
- Immigration
- Border security/infiltration of terrorists
- Israel/Hamas war
- War
- Accountability for Trump/losing democracy


These were top issues that concerned the most for GA Trump-to-Biden swing voters:

- Economy
- Federal spending/deficit
- Gun violence/mass shooting
- Immigration
- Israel/Hamas/Ukraine war
- Divided congress
- Housing market
- Transgender in sports


These were top issues that concerned the most for PA Trump-to-Biden swing voters:

- Economy
- Inflation
- Crime
- Immigration
- Ukraine war


These were top issues that concerned the most for MI Trump-to-Biden swing voters:

- Economy
- Inflation/Cost of living
- Border issue
- Ukraine war escalation
- Racial division
- Abortion/Pro choice
- Climate change
- Transgender in sports (Need to separate)


These were top issues that concerned the most for MN Trump-to-Biden swing voters:

- Crime
- Economy/National Debt
- Ukraine war escalation
- Climate change
- Retirement
- Abortion/Pro choice
- Campaign reform (No Super PAC)
 
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LiveLife

LiveLife

Active member
Disclaimer: In case you are wondering, when I reached voting age "thinking" the Republican party embraced the "Constitutional republic" electoral college representational form of government the founders chose in 1776 to protect equal constitutional/Bill of Rights of all citizens in all states, regardless of population size as "Pure democracy" popular vote form of government would allow majority mob rule to impose on the rights of minority (It's been done to slaves and women and now being done to minority gun owners by the majority mob rule).

But after 2016/2020 elections, I no longer felt we have two political party system in the US rather uni-party (Government by special interest/corporations/big donors/Super PAC, etc. and not by "We the People") made to "appear" like two parties and like "Chevy vs Ford", "We the People" are now made to engage in fractured debates unwilling to consider the other side's arguments and presidential elections are now decided by several swing state voters. ;) ... sad but true. (I will add this disclaimer to the OP)

LiveLife said:
1/20/24 David Pakman Show: "Trump RECORD SUPPORT, BIden NEW LOW in disturbing poll - Concerning new polls show Joe Biden with a low approval rating and losing in head-to-head matchups against all of the potential Republican challengers"
Click to expand...
Not surprisingly, there was quite a bit of reaction to this video (There's over 3500 voicemails yet to be screened) and here's one David decided to respond to:

WOW: Caller absolutely destroys me, calls me out, can I even go on with my life?
 
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theotherwaldo

theotherwaldo

Well-known member
Our country is being controlled by a political over-class that has nothing but contempt for those that are not in their clique.

(Trump, by the way, is not - and never will be - in that clique. He is a member of the group that this clique allows to grow fat so that this clique can strip of most of what they have whenever it is convenient. After all, that kind actually works for a living!)

This clique controls the vast majority of our communications systems and uses these systems to install members of their clique in positions of power. Anyone that they dislike will be harassed and legally hounded until they give up... or win.

I don't like Trump or most of his ilk, but I judge most men and ideas by the quality of the enemies that they accumulate.

So far, Trump and MAGA have all of the right enemies... .
 
LiveLife

LiveLife

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theotherwaldo said:
I don't like Trump or most of his ilk, but I judge most men and ideas by the quality of the enemies that they accumulate.

So far, Trump and MAGA have all of the right enemies... .
Click to expand...
Yes, the "real" enemies of this Constitutional Republic ... Back in 1776, there were those who wanted to take away guns and silence free speech of "We the People" ... Now in 2024, there are those who want to take away guns and silence free speech ... ;)

The Hill - JPMorgan-Chase's Jamie Dimon to Dems: "'GROW UP' & 'LISTEN' To Trump Supporters, DJT WAS RIGHT"

And "Why did Ron DeSantis quit US presidential race [so early]? - BBC News"
 
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LiveLife

LiveLife

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Katie Couric mentions voting for Biden is like voting for Harris due to his age. While there maybe significant support behind abortion/reproductive rights issue by women voters and Biden administration continues to back Ukraine/Israel and "open border" policy; as indicated by swing voters in key states in post #3, inflation/economy/cost of living/national debt/crime/border/immigration/war way overshadowed abortion/pro choice and these swing voters in key states will actually decide the outcome of 2024 election - https://notechtyranny.com/index.php...vs-trump-with-some-differences.336/#post-9550

When Katie Couric said 68% of Americans disapprove of Biden administration's "open border" policy and 14 Democrats denounced it as "national security and public safety crisis", Kamala Harris stated "Our immigration system is broken and needs to be fixed".

Increasing number of Gen Z voters in their 20s will participate in 2024 election (Soon followed by Gen Alpha currently in their teens) and issues like wage vs cost of living, inflation/economy, crime/immigration/war maybe more pressing than other issues like abortion/pro choice/climate change supported by some Boomer/Gen X/Millennial voters.

While these issues were discussed, Kamala Harris did not state what she/Biden plan to do about them and increasing number of voters may feel the Biden administration caused them.

Katie sat down for a rare one-on-one interview in DC with Vice President Kamala Harris in her ceremonial office at the Eisenhower Executive Office Building. And there was a lot to talk about.​
​
2024 is here at last, and it’s a monumentally important election year–one that looks more likely every day to be another Biden-Trump re-match. The political news has been heavily skewed toward the Republican side of the race, given the drama of selecting their nominee. Less has been heard from the incumbent administration.​
​
But the campaign is heating up for the Democrats too. From abortion rights to the crisis in Israel and Gaza, shifting voter coalitions and where Biden-Harris need to really make their message sing, such as with Gen Z, this wide ranging conversation gets to the heart of what’s at stake this election year, and what the Biden-Harris administration is doing to make their case to voters.​
​
00:00 - 01:14 - Katie Couric and Kamala Harris say hello and joke about their heights being incorrect on Wikipedia​
01:15 - 13:11 - Kamala Harris talks about the overturning of Roe v. Wade and her “Fight for Reproductive Rights Freedoms” tour​
13:12 - 18:23 - How the Biden Harris administration plans to address the broken immigration system​
18:24 - 23:10 - Katie Couric and Kamala Harris discuss the ongoing situation between Israel and Palestine​
23:11 - 28:52 - The accomplishments of the Biden Harris administration​
28:53 - 35:24 - Katie Couric and Kamala Harris discuss concerns about Joe Biden’s age and being president for a second term​
35:25 - 37:31 - Katie Couric and Kamala Harris talk about why so many supporters of Donald Trump choose to turn a blind eye to the 91 criminal indictments against him.​

 
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LiveLife

LiveLife

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David Pakman discuss results of NH primary and what they could mean regarding Biden v Trump for 2024 ... "Less money you made, more likely you were to vote for Trump".

Trump wins New Hampshire, will become Republican nominee - Donald Trump wins the New Hampshire Republican primary, clearing his path towards the GOP nomination, as President Joe Biden easily wins despite being a write-in candidate

 
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LiveLife

LiveLife

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Here's latest polling results from fivethirtyeight.com for presidential general election 2024 - https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/

DatesSamplePollsterSponsorResultNet Result
Jan 22-241250 AIpsosReutersBiden 30/Trump 36+6 Trump
Jan 21-231497 RVYou GovThe EconomistBiden 43/Trump 44+1 Trump
Jan 19-221002 RVThe Bullfinch GroupIndependent CenterBiden 42/Trump 47+5 Trump
Jan 19-216417 RVMorning ConsultBiden 40/Trump 45+5 Trump
Jan 17-213034 RVHarrisXThe MessengerBiden 41/Trump 48+7 Trump

The Hill: [Referencing latest polling data] Immigration now tops economy as America's top concern - deep dive on the topic of the migrant crisis and immigration, which is now a number one concern among Americans.


More in depth look at issues

 
theotherwaldo

theotherwaldo

Well-known member
Immigration is a major concern to me.
The town where I live AND the town where I work both have bridges to Tamaulipas, Mexico.
I spend a fair percentage of my time assisting legal immigrants in performing the necessary tasks that are required to remain in the United States.
I'm doing this in Donna, Texas, the town where they warehouse the 'unaccompanied minors' until they are handed off to their purchasers.

Yep, illegal immigration is a concern to me... .
 
LiveLife

LiveLife

Active member
Interesting development with RFK Jr. rising in the polls as Libertarian party who opposes war in Ukraine/Gaza and will this hurt Biden?

The Hill: RFK Jr. ROCKETS in the Polls, 12% Nationally, Trump DESTROYS Biden in 2024 Polling

RFK denies considering VP for Trump and states two party political system is broken due to corruption (Remember Democrat primary "stolen" from Bernie Sanders? Yes it happened. And now corporate donors are funding both parties ... Does "We the People" matter anymore in 2024? ;)). And since it's key swing states that determine the election, it's interesting how Biden is polling in these states as Trump is leading 5%-8% over Biden.
 
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LiveLife

LiveLife

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The Hill: Amber Duke and Jessica Burbank interview Andrew Yang about a probable Biden-Trump matchup, and making the case for Democratic presidential hopeful Dean Phillips - "Trump WILL BEAT Biden"


CNN: Democratic presidential candidate: "My party is completely delusional right now ... Joe Biden is going to lose ... He is doing nothing ... He is not doing town hall ... He is not showing up ... DNC is suppressing voters ... Vice president can't even introduce herself ... We will lose again if Biden is on the ticket"


Dean Phillips - Biden challenger goes to Trump rally: "My party is completely delusional" ... No one listening to GOP voters but Trump ... It's not about Trump, it's about America.

 
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LiveLife

LiveLife

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LiveLife said:
Since US presidential elections are mainly determined by several "swing states", I have followed Engagious swing voter project which interviews swing voters in key swing states throughout the year
Click to expand...
Engagious, in partnership with Syracuse University’s Institute for Democracy, Journalism, and Citizenship ... just started conducting monthly focus groups of pivotal voting segments in key battleground states. NBC News formally announced it will be covering these groups as part of its “Deciders” series - https://press.nbcnews.com/2024/02/01/nbc-news-launches-new-2024-focus-group-series/

Monthly focus groups with Axios for the Swing Voter Project (project turns five years old in March). The two projects "Swing Voters" and “Deciders” are scheduled to alternate every two weeks between now and the election.

NBC News on Thursday launched The Deciders Focus Groups, a new monthly series of in-depth conversations with key slices of the 2024 electorate conducted in collaboration with Engagious, Syracuse University’s Institute for Democracy, Journalism & Citizenship, and Sago. Highlights from the first conversation will air Thursday starting at 4 p.m. on Meet the Press NOW.​
​
Moderated by Engagious president Rich Thau, each session will give audiences an in-depth look at voter attitudes ahead of the 2024 election by featuring a unique subset of the electorate – broken down by demographic, geography, or ideology – that NBC News polling has shown could play a determining role in the outcome of November’s election.​
​

Top issues that matter the most:
  • Border
  • Immigration
  • Inflation
  • Economy
  • Crime/violence
  • Opioid crisis
Top issues facing women:
  • Abortion
  • Healthcare
  • Economy
  • Inflation

Focus groups on immigration

 
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LiveLife

LiveLife

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During a rare primetime news conference Thursday, President Biden disputed some of the findings of a special counsel report on his handling of classified material. Mr. Biden refuted the report's comments about his memory, but at one point referred to Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi as the president of Mexico.


A newly released special counsel report found that U.S. President Joe Biden 'willfully retained and disclosed' classified material after leaving the vice presidency, but that criminal charges were not warranted. Andrew Chang breaks down the report, and its repeated references to Biden's 'significantly limited' memory.


Breaking down Biden's response to special counsel's classified documents report - The White House is hitting back at a special counsel report detailing President Biden's "willful retention" of classified documents, taking particular issue with the report's characterization of the president's memory and age.

 
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LiveLife

LiveLife

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The Deciders Focus Groups project is a partnership between the Institute for Democracy, Journalism and Citizenship (IDJC), Engagious and Sago, in collaboration with NBC News - https://idjc.syracuse.edu/news/the-2024-deciders-focus-groups/

This project consists of a series of monthly focus groups with key voting blocs in 2024 presidential election battleground states. Each focus group session will cover a central issue with a demographic group that can likely determine the outcome of the election.​
​
IDJC is developing questions about participants’ views toward issues, candidates, voting, governance, democracy and news habits and trust. The project will help students as well as the public to learn about newsgathering, civic engagement and media literacy. They will learn what matters most to voters during this election cycle.​

1/31/24 Deciders Focus Group

Trump-voting PA women who oppose Dobbs explain how they’ll vote and why (12 out of 15 will still vote for Trump and consider economy/border higher priority issue than abortion)


All of them feel worse off than in January of 2020 and US economy is in "lousy" shape


BTW, these are their news sources: Online (Yahoo news, MSNBC, Fox, CNN, Newsmax, AOL, etc.), Facebook, X (Formally Twitter), Local News (Fox, ABC, CBS), Google, Radio/NPR. (Interestingly, NONE of the participants expect to hear the "facts" from reporters)

 
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LiveLife

LiveLife

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Remember Jon Stewart when he mentioned viewers getting better news reporting from a comedy show than typical "news" outlets?

Well, he's back and discusses Biden vs Trump starting at 3:30 minute of video ... Particularly 6:45 minute of video.

12:25 minute of video illustrates why some people (Especially swing voters in key states) may no longer trust "news outlets/reporters" to be telling the factual truth as mentioned in post #17 ... and Jon states, "... Did anyone film that? If he is sharp, full of energy and on top of things, etc ... You should film that ... that would be good to show to people" ... but instead of displaying expression of sharpness, energy, being on top of things ... he does TikTok about cookies ... 😆

So we are supposed to be the greatest "democracy" in the world and we have to choose from these two candidates? ... Two old guys to handle the "toughest job in the world" ... :oops:


Editor-in-Chief of The Economist, Zanny Minton Beddoes, joins Jon Stewart to discuss President Joe Biden’s 2nd term potential, the global spread of national conservatism, what former President Donald Trump doesn't understand about the NATO alliance, and the Republican divide over support for Ukraine.

 
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LiveLife

LiveLife

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Latest polls showing Biden trailing behind Trump in a 2024 match-up and voter sentiment on Biden's economic policies, including swing voters.

 
LiveLife

LiveLife

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TRUMP Can Win 2024 Election In A LANDSLIDE (Map Projection)


TRUMP vs. BIDEN | 2024 Election Map Based on New Polling Averages

 
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