I have been in several threads here in which people seem quite enamored of what they feel Trump's accomplishments were while in office. Much of the information these posters have conveyed seems to have come out of Trump's mouth. Because I regard Trump as almost the definition of an unreliable source, I thought it might be useful to take a look at some actual data, to see what he actually did. This will be an occasional series, and I will present documented data. To be fair, I only use numbers up through 2019, since the COVID pandemic had such a strong effect on the economy.
First - the overall economy (based on per-capita GDP). I have posted this elsewhere in this forum, but it gives a 50-year perspective on the US economy. As you can see, his numbers are undistinguished (the trendline from Obama to Trump is almost a straight line), suggesting that, while he didn't sink the economy, he didn't improve it more than any other president over the last half-century:
and how about the US debt? (data: US treasury Dept)
and because Trump supporters are so fixated on Obama, let's just focus in a bit on 2008-2020. Notice that, even before 2020, it was lower under Obama than under Trump? (in general, the US debt grows under Republicans and shrinks under Democrats, as you can see in the above graph).
How about unemployment? (data: US Dept of Labor Statistics)
Note that the decreasing trend was greater under Obama, but true, Trump didn't screw up Obama's jobs recovery.
And how about that trade war with China that Trump said was so easy to win? did it improve manufacturing jobs? (data: US Dept of Labor Statistics):
Well, he didn't do quite as well as Obama in terms of the trend line, but he didn't sink manufacturing.
How about another impact of the trade war - China refusing to buy US food imports? Well, part of the debt issue, of course, is our need to give big federal subsidies to farmers who were suddenly without a market for their produce (data - US Dept of Agriculture):
Notice how disciplined Obama was, and then wow! A steady increase, and the spike in the end is 2019, not 2020.
Overall, my impression is that Trump had no real effect on the economy. The recovery started under Obama, and the US having the largest economy in the world - it just continued on doing what it does. The idea that Trump made decisions that somehow improved American lives in their pocketbooks is largely the result of him being willing to claim credit where none was due. He has long been a hustler and liar in his real-estate deals, so I guess this should be no surprise. Yet, somehow he convinced people he had done a good job. He is a salesman, after all.
Over the next dew days/weeks I will hit some other topics in a similar way (Trump's foreign relations, immigration, COVID, 2nd Amendment, his leadership, etc.). My hope is that it will cause a few people to reassess their support of Trump, which is, in my estimation, inexplicable.
But feel free to refute me! Just do with reasoned and informed argumentation, not a bunch of juvenile name-calling, please.
First - the overall economy (based on per-capita GDP). I have posted this elsewhere in this forum, but it gives a 50-year perspective on the US economy. As you can see, his numbers are undistinguished (the trendline from Obama to Trump is almost a straight line), suggesting that, while he didn't sink the economy, he didn't improve it more than any other president over the last half-century:
and how about the US debt? (data: US treasury Dept)
and because Trump supporters are so fixated on Obama, let's just focus in a bit on 2008-2020. Notice that, even before 2020, it was lower under Obama than under Trump? (in general, the US debt grows under Republicans and shrinks under Democrats, as you can see in the above graph).
How about unemployment? (data: US Dept of Labor Statistics)
Note that the decreasing trend was greater under Obama, but true, Trump didn't screw up Obama's jobs recovery.
And how about that trade war with China that Trump said was so easy to win? did it improve manufacturing jobs? (data: US Dept of Labor Statistics):
Well, he didn't do quite as well as Obama in terms of the trend line, but he didn't sink manufacturing.
How about another impact of the trade war - China refusing to buy US food imports? Well, part of the debt issue, of course, is our need to give big federal subsidies to farmers who were suddenly without a market for their produce (data - US Dept of Agriculture):
Notice how disciplined Obama was, and then wow! A steady increase, and the spike in the end is 2019, not 2020.
Overall, my impression is that Trump had no real effect on the economy. The recovery started under Obama, and the US having the largest economy in the world - it just continued on doing what it does. The idea that Trump made decisions that somehow improved American lives in their pocketbooks is largely the result of him being willing to claim credit where none was due. He has long been a hustler and liar in his real-estate deals, so I guess this should be no surprise. Yet, somehow he convinced people he had done a good job. He is a salesman, after all.
Over the next dew days/weeks I will hit some other topics in a similar way (Trump's foreign relations, immigration, COVID, 2nd Amendment, his leadership, etc.). My hope is that it will cause a few people to reassess their support of Trump, which is, in my estimation, inexplicable.
But feel free to refute me! Just do with reasoned and informed argumentation, not a bunch of juvenile name-calling, please.
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