Looks like 2024 election is repeat of 2020 (Biden vs Trump) with some differences


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New CNN poll shows Biden 43% trailing behind Trump 49% despite the legal trouble factor "baked in" to polls by now with most of support falling from non-white voters compared to 2020 election with discontent expressed by voters in key swing states regarding economy/inflation. This is worst poll of recent polls.

71% disapprove Biden's handling of Israel-Hamas war with 81% disapprove ages from 18 to 34 (Majority of democrats disapprove). Most voters in new poll say "Biden's presidency has been a failure".

Biden is losing support from younger voters as he stands firm with Israel/Netanyahu and protest against Gaza war grows. More telling percentage numbers are Trump's success/failure rating of 55%/44% compared to Biden's 39%/61% with retrospective assessment of Trump's presidency continuing to improve (He was right about the wall, immigration, NATO countries not paying their share, etc.)

Donald Trump continues to hold an advantage over President Joe Biden according to a new CNN poll conducted by SSRS. CNN’s Priscilla Alvarez explains and CNN senior political analyst Ron Brownstein weighs in.
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New CNN poll shows Biden 43% trailing behind Trump 49%

71% disapprove Biden's handling of Israel-Hamas war with 81% disapprove ages from 18 to 34 (Majority of democrats disapprove). Most voters in new poll say "Biden's presidency has been a failure".
Following latest CNN poll, new Harvard/Harris Poll results express similar voter sentiment.

"... Most important question" ... job approval of Biden 44% and Trump 55% ... indicating "most voters think Trump did a better job as president."​

Forbes: Biden Poll Surge Has Ended And Trump Is Back On Top, Says Top Pollster Mark Penn

Mark Penn, Chairman and CEO of Stagwell Inc and Chairman of the Harris Poll, joins "Forbes Newrsoom" to break down the latest Harvard/Harris Poll showing former President Trump leading President Biden, why Trump is seeing strength he never showed in 2016 and 2020, the ongoing protests on college campuses, and more.​
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We all already know that "NATIONAL polls/sentiment" DOESN'T MATTER as it's what voters in KEY SWING STATES that will DECIDE the outcome of the presidential election in November.

And DESPITE what EVERYTHING that's been thrown at Trump, he is STILL LEADING in key swing state polls. Just imagine where Trump would be if it wasn't for the endless smear campaign? Makes you wonder. ;)

The Hill: NEW POLL: Trump WINNING In every Swing State

What’s America Thinking host Julia Manchester goes on the record with Decision Desk HQ’s Scott Tranter about the latest in the 2024 presidential race and former President Trump’s criminal cases.​
"We DON'T elect presidents by national popular vote" < By Electoral College, particularly by key swing states, so NATIONAL polling sentiment doesn't matter but KEY SWING STATES polling does matter ;) >​
Jump to 9:05 minute of video for newest key swing state polling adding to CNN and Harvard/Harris polls:
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Snopes Fact Check: Multiple Polls Say Biden Is Least Popular US President in 70 Years - https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/joe-biden-least-popular-president/

Claim: Public opinion polls released in April 2024 found Joe Biden to be the least popular U.S. president in 70 years.
Rating: True
  • In April 2024, multiple outlets and social media accounts reported that Biden was the least popular president in 70 years
  • Livemint business news site reported on Biden's declining popularity, stating he was the "most unpopular US President in 7 decades."
  • Reddit post repeated the claim
  • New York Post also covered Biden's low approval ratings, stating that, "Biden is the least popular president in 70 years — below even Nixon and Carter"
  • Many of these reports pulled their data from polling analysis by Gallup, which conducted a public survey that found Biden's approval ratings were historically low, making him the least popular U.S. president since Dwight Eisenhower was in office in the 1950s.
  • Gallup Poll: Biden's 13th-quarter approval average was, in fact, the lowest in modern history. The poll, conducted April 1–22, 2024, highlighted a downward trend in Biden's approval since he took office, with only 38.7% of American voters approving of his performance as president - https://web.archive.org/web/2024050...ter-approval-average-lowest-historically.aspx
  • Gallup used an illustrative chart to show how Biden's approval rating compared to other U.S. presidents during their 13th quarter in office - https://web.archive.org/web/2024032...val-ratings-third-year-biden/#google_vignette
  • FiveThirtyEight drew the same conclusions about Biden's unpopularity ... ongoing tracking of Biden's approval rating showed a consistent decline over time, with his May approval rating hovering around 37.8%, lower than that of his recent predecessors.
  • Reuters, in a detailed graphic analysis published April 17, 2024, reported Biden's approval rating stood at 38%, a drop from 40% in March.
  • Market research firm Ipsos reported in March that Biden's approval was at 40%
  • The Hill and The Blaze reported on Biden's historically low approval ratings, corroborating the claim that his "approval rating average is lower than any other president in recent history at the same point in their time in the White House."
Conclusion: Multiple surveys and analysis released in April 2024 by Gallup and other pollsters concluded that Biden was indeed, at the time the polls were taken, the least popular U.S. president in 70 years.
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Trump leads five out of six key swing states in latest New York Times poll

The Hill: Biden In Deep DENIAL As Trump TROUNCES Him In Critical States

Briahna Joy Gray and Robby Soave discuss new polling on President Joe Biden and former president Donald Trump.​

The Hill: MISSING THE MARK? Biden Struggles With KEY Demographics Before November

What’s America Thinking host Julia Manchester goes on the record with Decision Desk HQ’s Scott Tranter about the latest in the 2024 presidential race and Senate races in key states.​
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New York Times breaks down their poll results. < It boils down to do voters want four more years of past 3.5 years? ... Big "No" >

"Biden does not represent change. Trump represents change ..."​

NY Times: Voters Want Change. In Our Poll, They See It in Trump.

The latest Times polling shows the extent of the challenge that President Biden faces and the strengths that Donald J. Trump retains. A yearning for change — as well as discontent over the economy and the war in Gaza among young, Black and Hispanic voters — may lie behind both.​
Nate Cohn, our chief political analyst, explains the surveys: New York Times/Siena College polls of Michigan, Wisconsin, Georgia, Nevada and Arizona, and the inaugural Times/Philadelphia Inquirer/Siena poll in Pennsylvania.​
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This is something ...

Politico: Dems in full-blown "freakout" over BIden - https://www.politico.com/news/2024/05/28/democrats-freakout-over-biden-00160047
  • "A pervasive sense of fear has settled in at the highest levels of the Democratic Party over President Joe Biden’s reelection prospects ..."
  • Five months to go, party leaders are anxious and worried about Biden’s prospects ... “You don’t want to be that guy who is on the record saying we’re doomed ..." - Democratic operative in close touch with the White House ... Biden’s stubbornly poor polling ... “are creating the freakout,”
  • Despite everything, Trump is polling better in most battleground states, raised far more money in April, and things could get worse for Democrats, with Trump’s hush-money trial concluding and Hunter Biden's case set to begin in Delaware
  • Trump outraised Biden by $25 million last month and raised record-setting $50.5 million from Palm Beach, Florida event
  • One adviser to major Democratic Party donors provided reasons why Biden could lose ... immigration, high inflation, Biden’s age, unpopularity of Vice President Kamala Harris and the presence of third-party candidates like Robert F. Kennedy Jr. “Donors ask me on an hourly basis about what I think ... so much easier to show them, so while they read it, I can pour a drink ... The list of why we ‘could’ win is so small I don’t even need to keep the list on my phone.”
  • Pete Giangreco ... Democratic strategist ... “If the frame of this race is, ‘What was better, the 3.5 years under Biden or four years under Trump,’ we lose that every day of the week and twice on Sunday.”
  • When trial began, Trump had 0.3-point lead in national polls, according to FiveThirtyEight. Trump is up about a point since then, currently leading Biden by 1.4 points in the FiveThirtyEight average.


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We now have a presidential candidate with street cred!!



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According to this report, Trump has narrowed VP picks down to four potential candidates but "Trump is working with ... shortlist that includes more than a half-dozen names. Additions, subtractions and the emergence of dark-horse candidates remain possible" - https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/trumps-vp-search-accelerates-rcna155607
  • North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum
  • Senator Marco Rubio of Florida
  • Senator Tim Scott of South Carolina
  • Senator JD Vance of Ohio


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New poll the "Gold Standard" poll of Iowa shows Trump leading Biden by double digits in key state of Iowa by 50% to 32%

Fox News Radio host Guy Benson joins 'America's Newsroom' to discuss the latest polling out of Iowa showing former President Trump outpolling Biden by 18 points.​
"Biden should assume the polls are right, not wrong"​

BAD NEWS for Biden, Trump WINNING among overall voters: Latest NY Times polls

Robby Soave and Michael Starr Hopkins discuss the latest on Joe Biden and Donald Trump's polling numbers.​
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CNN Data Reporter "Speechless" By New Donald Trump-Joe Biden Poll: "Holy Cow, Folks!" - https://www.yahoo.com/news/cnn-data-reporter-speechless-donald-065504319.html
  • There was shock on CNN at how former President Donald Trump is faring in polling among Black voters
  • Senior political data reporter was “speechless” at Trump’s surge from around 7% support in 2020 to 21% now - compared with Biden’s plummet from 86% to 70%
  • “I keep looking for signs that this is going to go back to normal and I don’t see it yet in the polling of anything ... We’re careening towards a historic performance for Republican presidential candidate, the likes of which we have not seen in six decades.”
  • Trump appears to have made particular inroads with younger Black voters ... “Look at Black voters under the age of 50. Holy cow, folks! Holy cow!”


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The must-watch moments of the CNN Presidential Debate

Chuck Todd: Democrats in ‘full-on panic’ over President Biden’s debate performance

President Biden’s performance in the first presidential debate is raising questions about whether or not Democrats might try to replace him as the nominee.​

Post-debate round table talk: Political analysts react to historic presidential showdown

Rick Mullaney, Chris Hand, and Dr. John Allen Newman joined the roundtable to discuss the face off between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump.​
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Trump picks former "Never Trump" J.D. Vance as VP - https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2024/07/15/jd-vance-55-things-trump-vp-00167882

On July 15, 2024, during the 2024 Republican National Convention, Trump announced that he chose Vance as his running mate via a post on Truth Social.

"After lengthy deliberation and thought, and considering the tremendous talents of many others, I have decided that the person best suited to assume the position of Vice President of the United States is Senator J.D. Vance of the Great State of Ohio.​
J.D. honorably served our Country in the Marine Corps, graduated from Ohio State University in two years, Summa Cum Laude, and is a Yale Law School Graduate, where he was Editor of The Yale Law Journal, and President of the Yale Law Veterans Association.​
J.D.'s book, "Hillbilly Elegy," became a Major Best Seller and Movie, as it championed the hardworking men and women of our Country.​
J.D. has had a very successful business career in Technology and Finance, and now, during the Campaign, will be strongly focused on the people he fought so brilliantly for, the American Workers and Farmers in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio, Minnesota, and far beyond ..."​
- Donald J. Trump, Truth Social​

  • Born to drug addict mother of two failed marriages, "J.D." was raised by Democrat grandparents who were "best thing" that happened in his life
  • In the U.S. Marine Corps, he served as a combat correspondent (military journalist)
  • J.D. Vance is a venture capitalist and best-selling author - After graduating from Yale Law School, Vance joined Mithril Capital, a venture capital firm run by the Silicon Valley scion Peter Thiel
  • He apologized for criticizing former President Donald Trump in now-deleted tweets in 2016 that he would not vote for Trump in the presidential election and instead support Evan McMullin, a former CIA operations officer who ran as an independent.
  • He called Trump “reprehensible” ... “Trump makes people I care about afraid. Immigrants, Muslims, etc. Because of this I find him reprehensible. God wants better of us,” he wrote in October 2016.
  • In another deleted tweet – this one sent following the fallout of the infamous Access Hollywood tape – Vance wrote, “Fellow Christians, everyone is watching us when we apologize for this man. Lord help us.”
  • In 2016, he claimed, “I’m a Never Trump guy"
  • He told NPR, “I think that he’s noxious and is leading the white working class to a very dark place”
  • “I go back and forth between thinking Trump is a cynical asshole like Nixon who wouldn’t be that bad (and might even prove useful) or that he’s America’s Hitler,” he wrote to a friend in February 2016. He ended up voting for independent Evan McMullin.
  • In 2017, Vance became a CNN contributor
  • In 2019, Vance co-founded Narya Capital in Cincinnati with financial backing from Thiel, Eric Schmidt, and Marc Andreessen
  • In 2020, he raised $93 million for the firm. With Thiel and former Trump adviser Darren Blanton, Vance has invested in Rumble, a Canadian online video platform popular with the political right.
  • Hillbilly Elegy: A Memoir of a Family and Culture in Crisis is a bestselling 2016 memoir by J. D. Vance about the Appalachian values of his Kentucky family and the social and socioeconomic problems of his hometown of Middletown, Ohio, where his mother's parents moved when they were young - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hillbilly_Elegy
  • In 2020, one week after the presidential election, Netflix released a film adaptation of Hillbilly Elegy, directed by Ron Howard and starring Gabriel Basso as Vance, Glenn Close as Mamaw and Amy Adams as Bev Vance ... New Yorker calling it “a libertarian’s fantasy.” Friends of Vance have said negative reaction to the film was the “last straw” of Vance’s estrangement from elite liberal society.
  • He entered the Republican primary for Ohio’s open Senate seat in 2022. Vance was sworn in to the U.S. Senate on January 3, 2023, as a member of the 118th United States Congress. He is the first U.S. senator from Ohio without previous government experience since astronaut John Glenn who took office in 1974.
  • He told Fox News on Monday night, he regretted making his earlier comments and asked viewers not to judge him on his past statements. “Like a lot of people, I criticized Trump back in 2016,” Vance said. “And I ask folks not to judge me based on what I said in 2016, because I’ve been very open that I did say those critical things and I regret them, and I regret being wrong about the guy.”
  • In April 2022, Trump endorsed Vance. “J.D. is kissing my ass he wants my support so bad,” Trump later said.
  • Vance’s primary supporter inside Trump world was Donald Trump Jr. His most prominent supporter in the conservative media: Tucker Carlson. His biggest donor: Peter Thiel (to the tune of $10 million).
  • In the Senate, he has emerged as a dogged defender of Trump and the standard-bearer of the “New Right,” a loose movement of young conservatives trying to push the Republican Party in a more populist, nationalist and culturally conservative direction.
  • He is a leading critic of U.S. support for Ukraine. “I got to be honest with you, I don’t really care what happens to Ukraine one way or another,” Vance told Steve Bannon in an interview in 2022.
  • He believes that “the culture war is class war” — that pushing back against the cultural values of progressive elites is necessary to advance the economic and political interests of the working class. In the Senate, his culture war initiatives include a bill criminalizing gender-affirming care for transgender kids, a ban on federal mask mandates, and crack-down on affirmative action policies at colleges and universities. He publicly supports a 15-week abortion ban with exceptions for rape, incest and threats to the life of the mother.
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Who Is J.D. Vance? Why Trump Nominated Him for VP | WSJ

Ohio Senator J.D. Vance is now on the 2024 ballot as former President Donald Trump's running mate and vice president pick. The best-selling author of “Hillbilly Elegy” and a former Never Trumper in 2016, Vance has had a meteoric rise in the Republican Party. WSJ's Molly Ball breaks down how Vance got the nomination, and what it means for the future of the GOP.

0:00 Trump’s running mate
0:39 From Never Trumper to supporter
2:48 What Vance brings as VP
4:28 What this means for voters
5:38 The future of MAGA

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J.D. Vance on "America's forgotten working class".

J.D. Vance grew up in a small, poor city in the Rust Belt of southern Ohio, where he had a front-row seat to many of the social ills plaguing America: a heroin epidemic, failing schools, families torn apart by divorce and sometimes violence. In a searching talk that will echo throughout the country's working-class towns, the author details what the loss of the American Dream feels like and raises an important question that everyone from community leaders to policy makers needs to ask: How can we help kids from America's forgotten places break free from hopelessness and live better lives?

"America is not just an idea. America is a nation. America is a group of people with a common history and a common future"

In his speech at the National Conservatism conference, JD Vance emphasized that "America is not just an idea. America is a nation. America is a group of people with a common history and a common future." Vance's remarks highlight the importance of national identity and shared heritage in shaping the country's destiny.



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A Florida federal judge dismissed the criminal case against former President Donald Trump over his handling of classified documents, writing that the appointment of special counsel Jack Smith in the case was unlawful - https://www.usatoday.com/story/news...d-trump-documents-case-dismissed/74407644007/

U.S. District Judge Aileen Cannon ... that Smith's appointment in the case violated a constitutional provision requiring “Officers of the United States” to be appointed by the president and confirmed by the Senate.​
As has been done with previous special prosecutors, Garland appointed Smith without seeking Senate approval for that action.​

Trump won a major legal victory today when Judge Aileen Cannon dismissed the "classified records" case against him on the grounds that special counsel Jack Smith was unlawfully appointed.
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