Does anyone regret their vote for Joe Biden?

roscoe

Well-known member
Of course not, you don't consider any criticism of leftists to be valid.
OK, so show me the evidence that gas prices are a result of Biden's election. That was the assertion.

Also, you are incorrect. I criticize leftists all the time (see my thread on Afghanistan). I came to this forum from THR, after all. You will notice I don't address all threads here, just the ones where I find error that bears refutation.
 

wiscoaster

Well-known member
If you can find something reputable, please show me.
I already did and you ignored it. Or didn't understand it. Same end result.

It's due to the very nature of how energy prices are determined whereby the potential of an adverse effect on future supply adversely affects current prices regardless of its having no effect on current supply. Therefore Biden's termination of the pipeline project does adversely affect current prices. If you can't get that relationship then of course you'd say what you said.

A hailstorm in July in Iowa adversely affects current corn prices, at least those not already locked in by contract, though the corn being delivered now was harvested last fall, and the hailstorm only affects what the crop might be in the coming fall harvest season.
 
Last edited:

roscoe

Well-known member
I already did and you ignored it. Or didn't understand it. Same end result.

It's due to the very nature of how energy prices are determined whereby the potential of an adverse effect on future supply adversely affects current prices regardless of its having no effect on current supply. Therefore Biden's termination of the pipeline project does adversely affect current prices. If you can't get that relationship then of course you'd say what you said.

A hailstorm in July in Iowa adversely affects current corn prices, at least those not already locked in by contract, though the corn being delivered now was harvested last fall, and the hailstorm only affects what the crop might be in the coming fall harvest season.
You showed me a pattern through time. Where is the analysis of the causal factors? How do we eliminate he economy rebounding, the normal seasonal shift, the Colonial Pipeline hack, the backlog created by COVID putting tanker drivers out of work, etc.? I can't find anyone in any discipline associated with economics or analyzing the petroleum industry making the claim that Biden is somehow responsible. I mean, I am open to the idea (I would love to get off oil dependency, anyway), but I need more than just an assertion of temporal association.

Like in the other thread, correlation is not causation.
 

roscoe

Well-known member
I think he wants photos of Biden actually putting numbers on the sign at the local gas station.
I do want more than mere assertion. You guys have the world's data at your fingertips.

If you were all so sure, you should have put all your money into oil futures on Jan 7, 2020.
 

wiscoaster

Well-known member
You showed me a pattern through time. Where is the analysis of the causal factors?
Ha ha ... what a hoot ... forward pricing of a commodity that's subject to multiple factors of random, variable and uncertain forward magnitude is not a straightforward and empirical causation process, and as far as price causation analysis goes, is subject to the individual analyses of all market participants. With respect to the impact of the pipeline project termination's effect on future prices, if you modify your correlation to "Biden is somewhat responsible" as one of many factors affecting pricing analysis then the statement is true and understood to be correct by any producer or consumer of the product who's trying to analyze and discover what the correct future price for delivery of the product at some point in the future should be. Exactly half of those analytical conclusions will be right and exactly half will be wrong. That's the nature of a zero-sum market.
 
Last edited:

roscoe

Well-known member
Ha ha ... what a hoot ... forward pricing of a commodity that's subject to multiple factors of random, variable and uncertain forward magnitude is not a straightforward and empirical causation process, and as far as price causation analysis goes, is subject to the individual analyses of all market participants. With respect to the impact of the pipeline project termination's effect on future prices, if you modify your correlation to "Biden is somewhat responsible" as one of many factors affecting pricing analysis then the statement is true and understood to be correct by any producer or consumer of the product who's trying to analyze and discover what the correct future price for delivery of the product at some point in the future should be. Exactly half of those analytical conclusions will be right and exactly half will be wrong. That's the nature of a zero-sum market.
That is pretty much my point. Oil price changes are multifactorial, but no one (in a position to study the data carefully) has identified Biden in that possible list of causes. And people make good money by identifying patterns of changes at a fractions of a percent, so you think that it would show up in somebody's analysis. But I haven't found any such published conclusions from people studying the numbers, yet. So, while the folks here may all nod their heads in unison and say 'yeah, Biden did it', as it stands now, it is just a notion, unsupported by data.
 

wiscoaster

Well-known member
....but no one (in a position to study the data carefully) has identified Biden in that possible list of causes. ...
I identified Biden in the list of possible causes. I was in as good of a position as any other small spec to study the data and I made a profit doing so, and so therefore I think that qualifies me as "somebody". At least more so than you, who hasn't put any money where your mouth has been.
 

roscoe

Well-known member
I identified Biden in the list of possible causes. I was in as good of a position as any other small spec to study the data and I made a profit doing so, and so therefore I think that qualifies me as "somebody". At least more so than you, who hasn't put any money where your mouth has been.

Obviously you did. But I need something quantitative - a multiple regression controlling for other economic factors is the traditional way to do eliminate other possible drivers of a pattern. I am sure someone has done it - there is lots of money riding on it.

But, yes, I do not actively manage my money - that way lies madness. A diversified fund left alone is the best long-term strategy for someone who does not have access to a hedge fund, in my opinion.
 

wiscoaster

Well-known member
...

But, yes, I do not actively manage my money - that way lies madness. A diversified fund left alone is the best long-term strategy for someone who does not have access to a hedge fund, in my opinion.
You're almost right, if you change that to "...someone who does not have the psychological makeup to take a loss and then just let it go."
 

roscoe

Well-known member
You're almost right, if you change that to "...someone who does not have the psychological makeup to take a loss and then just let it go."
Well, my understanding is that studies have shown that actively-managed funds do no better, over the long run, than passively managed funds. And the few that do are doing no better than would be predicted from chance alone. You should read 'Fooled By Randomness' by Taleb.
 

wiscoaster

Well-known member
Well, my understanding is that studies have shown that actively-managed funds do no better, over the long run, than passively managed funds.
That's basically correct and is primarily due to 1) fund management fees, 2) need to be broadly diversified, and 3) investor asset flows. I was able to do much better running my own portfolio, though I don't recommend doing so for the average investor, especially those that don't understand the difference between trading and investing.
 
Top