Fine Figure of a Man
Well-known member
We agree on this point.I am no expert
We agree on this point.I am no expert
OK, so show me the evidence that gas prices are a result of Biden's election. That was the assertion.Of course not, you don't consider any criticism of leftists to be valid.
You forgot the dependent clause.We agree on this point.
I already did and you ignored it. Or didn't understand it. Same end result.If you can find something reputable, please show me.
You showed me a pattern through time. Where is the analysis of the causal factors? How do we eliminate he economy rebounding, the normal seasonal shift, the Colonial Pipeline hack, the backlog created by COVID putting tanker drivers out of work, etc.? I can't find anyone in any discipline associated with economics or analyzing the petroleum industry making the claim that Biden is somehow responsible. I mean, I am open to the idea (I would love to get off oil dependency, anyway), but I need more than just an assertion of temporal association.I already did and you ignored it. Or didn't understand it. Same end result.
It's due to the very nature of how energy prices are determined whereby the potential of an adverse effect on future supply adversely affects current prices regardless of its having no effect on current supply. Therefore Biden's termination of the pipeline project does adversely affect current prices. If you can't get that relationship then of course you'd say what you said.
A hailstorm in July in Iowa adversely affects current corn prices, at least those not already locked in by contract, though the corn being delivered now was harvested last fall, and the hailstorm only affects what the crop might be in the coming fall harvest season.
I think he wants photos of Biden actually putting numbers on the sign at the local gas station.I already did and you ignored it. Or didn't understand it. Same end result.
I take it that means you agree that the situation at our southern border is a disaster and Biden caused it.I don't address all threads here, just the ones where I find error that bears refutation.
I think you can find my position on this topic here. It was thoroughly discussed.I take it that means you agree that the situation at our southern border is a disaster and Biden caused it.
I do want more than mere assertion. You guys have the world's data at your fingertips.I think he wants photos of Biden actually putting numbers on the sign at the local gas station.
i’m sure a portion of mine is.If you were all so sure, you should have put all your money into oil futures on Jan 7, 2020.
Not interestedI think you can find my position on this topic here. It was thoroughly discussed.
Ha ha ... what a hoot ... forward pricing of a commodity that's subject to multiple factors of random, variable and uncertain forward magnitude is not a straightforward and empirical causation process, and as far as price causation analysis goes, is subject to the individual analyses of all market participants. With respect to the impact of the pipeline project termination's effect on future prices, if you modify your correlation to "Biden is somewhat responsible" as one of many factors affecting pricing analysis then the statement is true and understood to be correct by any producer or consumer of the product who's trying to analyze and discover what the correct future price for delivery of the product at some point in the future should be. Exactly half of those analytical conclusions will be right and exactly half will be wrong. That's the nature of a zero-sum market.You showed me a pattern through time. Where is the analysis of the causal factors?
That is pretty much my point. Oil price changes are multifactorial, but no one (in a position to study the data carefully) has identified Biden in that possible list of causes. And people make good money by identifying patterns of changes at a fractions of a percent, so you think that it would show up in somebody's analysis. But I haven't found any such published conclusions from people studying the numbers, yet. So, while the folks here may all nod their heads in unison and say 'yeah, Biden did it', as it stands now, it is just a notion, unsupported by data.Ha ha ... what a hoot ... forward pricing of a commodity that's subject to multiple factors of random, variable and uncertain forward magnitude is not a straightforward and empirical causation process, and as far as price causation analysis goes, is subject to the individual analyses of all market participants. With respect to the impact of the pipeline project termination's effect on future prices, if you modify your correlation to "Biden is somewhat responsible" as one of many factors affecting pricing analysis then the statement is true and understood to be correct by any producer or consumer of the product who's trying to analyze and discover what the correct future price for delivery of the product at some point in the future should be. Exactly half of those analytical conclusions will be right and exactly half will be wrong. That's the nature of a zero-sum market.
OK, well, you don't know what you don't know.Not interested
I identified Biden in the list of possible causes. I was in as good of a position as any other small spec to study the data and I made a profit doing so, and so therefore I think that qualifies me as "somebody". At least more so than you, who hasn't put any money where your mouth has been.....but no one (in a position to study the data carefully) has identified Biden in that possible list of causes. ...
I identified Biden in the list of possible causes. I was in as good of a position as any other small spec to study the data and I made a profit doing so, and so therefore I think that qualifies me as "somebody". At least more so than you, who hasn't put any money where your mouth has been.
You're almost right, if you change that to "...someone who does not have the psychological makeup to take a loss and then just let it go."...
But, yes, I do not actively manage my money - that way lies madness. A diversified fund left alone is the best long-term strategy for someone who does not have access to a hedge fund, in my opinion.
Well, my understanding is that studies have shown that actively-managed funds do no better, over the long run, than passively managed funds. And the few that do are doing no better than would be predicted from chance alone. You should read 'Fooled By Randomness' by Taleb.You're almost right, if you change that to "...someone who does not have the psychological makeup to take a loss and then just let it go."
I've read it and have a copy on my bookshelf. Suggest: "Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds" by MacKay & de la Vega.You should read 'Fooled By Randomness' by Taleb.
That's basically correct and is primarily due to 1) fund management fees, 2) need to be broadly diversified, and 3) investor asset flows. I was able to do much better running my own portfolio, though I don't recommend doing so for the average investor, especially those that don't understand the difference between trading and investing.Well, my understanding is that studies have shown that actively-managed funds do no better, over the long run, than passively managed funds.
What we need to do is stay calm, anticipate that third parties will register and post seditious material to justify shutting this site down, and REPORT THEM IMMEDIATELY.
Again, I know it feels like the Republic is lost. It may be. But for now, on this site, please for the love of God stay calm, speak rationally, and hope for .... better judgement from our leaders in the future.
The coming days and weeks (likely after the 20th) will be easier, but for now we need to be on the best possible behavior. Please. :)