The role of facts and falsification - an honest inquiry

roscoe

Well-known member
I have been following the recent events (since the Nov. election) and have really been struck by something. There have repeated pronouncements and predictions by various members of the right (Alex Jones, QAnon, Sydney Powell, Giuliani, but even Trump himself) have turned out not to be true. And yet, people still seem to flock to them for the next prediction.

Recent predictions include the QAnon predictions about 'The Storm', Sydney Powell's prediction of the 'Kraken', etc., but other conspiracy theories include the Seth Rich conspiracy, the prediction of Hilary Clinton's arrest, the Scalia murder conspiracy, Crowdstrike, and more. The most dramatic was the idea that stopping the Electoral Ballot count last Wednesday (either by persuading Pence, or just invading the physical counting space) would somehow stop Biden from being elected.

As a scientist I can tell you that, if a researcher turned out to be unreliable even once, they would no longer be trusted in the scientific community, and their every scientific paper would be exhumed and re-examined. Yet, people still seem to look to Alex Jones to portend the future. I am having trouble understanding the psychology here - other than these people are simply telling you something you want to hear and your desire to believe somehow overcomes your critical faculties. Can someone explain this?

Below is the video that spurred this question (Alex Jones says he has received a 'Bat-Signal' from the SCOTUS that they will overturn the election). Also below is a list of false QAnon predictions.



Since the internet is anonymous, I am hoping that someone will fess up to being an Alex Jones, etc. believer, and explain their philosophy of support.
 
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NIGHTLORD40K

Active member
Cut me and I bleed little red elephants, yet Ive never heard of Alex Jones or Sydney Powell. Im aware of QAnon, but have never logged on to any of their websites. I believe I am a fairly mainstream Conservative/Libertarian, and I doubt any of the people I know who voted for Trump would recognize these names either.

Many of the things Guliani says make sense to me, others dont pass the smell test. Trump believes what he does because his former advisors told him it was true- and his lawyers dont get paid if they cant conjure up a bunch of billable hours.

Yes, I believe there was scattered fraud and shenaniganism in the election. I dont believe it was centrally orchestrated by the Democratic Party, at least above the state level- they arent that smart or well organized. Im sure there was some on the Red side too, meh. I dont know if there was enough to be outcome determinative. There was certainly some suppressive polling occuring, but I have a hard time believing most Republicans put any faith in the polls or the "mainstream" media by the time Election Day came around.

Bottom line, they couldnt have cheated enough to win if we had turned out an overwhelming number of Red votes. We didnt. We caught them napping and overconfident in 2016. The Dem coalition was fully "woke" this time.

I believe we lost, more or less accurately, because there are more voters who want the Republic to support them than those who value self-determination, reliance, and responsibility. Most "Americans" just want more free money, drugs, and the latest Chinese cell phones connected to social media 24/7.

In short, only a tiny, but vocal, minority of the Right, follows the extreme conspiracy theorists- just as only a tiny fraction on the Left are willing to suit up for Antifa- yet the majority accept that there was sufficient evidence of monkey-business to cast some doubt on the results. If it ever comes to pass that most Republicans actually BELIEVE that they have been disenfranchised through fraud, you may see serious calls for dissolving the Union- or worse.
 
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Howland937

Active member
I have been following the recent events (since the Nov. election) and have really been struck by something. There have repeated pronouncements and predictions
I just had this same conversation with my boss. Within a few days of the election, it was "Trump's going to hammer the cheaters because the mail in ballots have watermarks. They fell right into the trap". My response was less than enthusiastic, and I may have explained how ridiculous that sounded.

This past Friday, it was "Trump's going to declare martial law. He's declassifying documents going back before the Kennedy administration that exposes all the corruption on both sides. The inauguration is going to be cancelled and blah blah blah"

2 things puzzle me. My boss is actually an intelligent guy, so I'm not sure how he keeps falling for these "announcements". Possibly some misplaced trust in certain people, that read this made-up crap and pass it on.

The other thing I find puzzling is that these purveyors of false information apparently aren't held accountable often enough.
 

roscoe

Well-known member
I just had this same conversation with my boss. Within a few days of the election, it was "Trump's going to hammer the cheaters because the mail in ballots have watermarks. They fell right into the trap". My response was less than enthusiastic, and I may have explained how ridiculous that sounded.
. . .
The other thing I find puzzling is that these purveyors of false information apparently aren't held accountable often enough.

This is the key point.

In science, for example, there is a huge cost to lying. In law as well (perjury/disbarment). But there doesn't seem to be one for promoting dishonest conspiracy theories and general political lies. And it has huge consequences. Those people storming the Capitol (or a decent subset of them) genuinely thought they could change the outcome of the election by doing so - because they had been lied to.

Hopefully someone will respond to this thread who is or has been on that other side.
 

Howland937

Active member
I can't speak to what makes people buy in to these things. I can only offer my perspective based on my own personal experiences. A lot, I think can be attributed to fandom just like in sports. As much as we want our team to win, it's hard to admit sometimes that our team got outperformed. So when the inevitable loss happens, it's easier to make those excuses than to accept fault. The officials screwed our eyes out. The other team cheated. Homefield advantage. It's one thing, sitting on the couch having those thoughts individually. When every media outlet that shares our bias toward that team laments the same thing, those thoughts begin to feel justified...then real.

Problem is, just like that college football game the other night when my team got crushed...when the whistle blows, it's over. Doesn't matter how unfair the fans, coaches, players, etc feel it was (it was fair. Just a thorough ass kicking) they're not going to go back and change the results.

ETA... That same mentality, wanting the team wearing the same colors we wear to win no matter the cost, lends itself to overlooking or dismissing human flaws that we otherwise would never tolerate.
 
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roscoe

Well-known member
Just check the news - Dr. Fauci contradicts himself constantly, depending upon the expectations of the current political leaders.
-And he's far from the only case.

Well - that is just a vague claim with no substantiation. Please offer some documentation. Look around this site - when I make an assertion in disagreement, I always back it up. Just link me to a story or a graph supporting your position - something that suggests he is playing politics above science.
 

doubleh

Member
Dr Farce flip floped many times early in the coron virus thing. All you had to do was read the news regularly. If yo have doubts and want documentation feel free to go look it up. I know what was in the news stories and have no reason to lie about it.
 

Howland937

Active member
Is Fauci an employee of the Government? Are the terms of his employment like any other position that isn't a lifetime appointment? There was speculation very early on that Trump might fire him at any given time, but never did. Trump fired just about anyone that looked at him funny, so NOT firing Fauci may have been more of a shock. Regardless of how you feel about the people running the show, they didn't want 700,000 Americans to die.

The reality is that early on ,nobody knew what they didn't know. Uncharted territory for everyone, including WHO, CDC and every hospital on this planet. There was no user manual for Covid-19, so unfortunately there's a lot of trial and error due to the fluidity of the circumstances.
 

theotherwaldo

Well-known member
As a former middle schoolteacher and current reference librarian, I will point students to answers but I don't do their homework for them.
The reflexive response of the far left seems to be, "Show me the proof" whenever an opposing statement is produced that counters their position.
If proof is presented, the leftest simply states, "that's not proof"... .
 

theotherwaldo

Well-known member
It's an old scientific dodge: If I experience an event then it's a solid scientific observation, but if you experience an event then it's just anecdotal and proof of nothing.
I believe that this is based on the original meaning of the word "science", which is usually considered to mean "systematic pursuit of knowledge" but could also be translated as "the act of seeing or witnessing".
If If I see it then it's a fact... .
 

WrongHanded

Well-known member
It's an old scientific dodge: If I experience an event then it's a solid scientific observation, but if you experience an event then it's just anecdotal and proof of nothing.
I believe that this is based on the original meaning of the word "science", which is usually considered to mean "systematic pursuit of knowledge" but could also be translated as "the act of seeing or witnessing".
If If I see it then it's a fact... .
There's a big difference between belief and knowledge. And often a big difference between evidence and proof. Some people (not necessarily you) may think circumstantial evidence is proof of fact, when it really is not.
 

roscoe

Well-known member
I have yet to see a single shred of evidence to support the claim that Fauci was political. You made the assertion, therefore the burden of proof lies with you.

Anyway, my read is that Fauci's position was entirely evidence-based and largely consistent. He said to wear masks (once they were widely available) and to use social distancing, even when he was pressured not to. I don't think he has flip-flopped at all.

BTW - my evidence:

 

roscoe

Well-known member
It's an old scientific dodge: If I experience an event then it's a solid scientific observation, but if you experience an event then it's just anecdotal and proof of nothing.
I believe that this is based on the original meaning of the word "science", which is usually considered to mean "systematic pursuit of knowledge" but could also be translated as "the act of seeing or witnessing".
If If I see it then it's a fact... .

This is not how science works. At all. Scientific observations only count if they are in some way repeatable. If you see it, and then I see it under similar conditions, it is accepted as scientific data. But if you see it, and I don't, then it has a big old asterisk next to it.

Saying 'show me the proof' is not a dodge - it is the foundation of the scientific method. Otherwise, we would accept the word of ghost-hunters as scientific evidence. Which, BTW, we definitely do not.

I hate to say this 'as a working scientist', but since you called out your librarian bona fides, I am doing so.
 

roscoe

Well-known member
I believe we lost, more or less accurately, because there are more voters who want the Republic to support them than those who value self-determination, reliance, and responsibility. Most "Americans" just want more free money, drugs, and the latest Chinese cell phones connected to social media 24/7.
FWIW, I agree with this. But it is not a left-right thing, as far as I can tell. The Trump supporters I know all shop at WalMart for the absolutely cheapest Chinese-made plasma TVs and iPhones. No one under 40 can fix a car, irrespective of party (and most under 60, sadly). My extremely right-wing brother can barely change a light bulb and his similarly right-wing wife buys all meals from fast-food restaurants or pre-prepared. The kitchen is for appearances only. And their kids just want video games (boys) or cheap clothes / makeup (girls). His friends are mostly the same. They all spend way too much time fiddling around on social media, watching people injure themselves, or cat videos. Cheap material goods accumulate.

The country has become decadent, entitled, and arrogant, seeking convenience and self-validation above all other things. And because Trump more or less embodied all of this (right down to the cell phone addiction), he was everything I felt the USA didn't need. He turned out to be all that and worse, which means, I guess, that I lack a certain amount of imagination.
 
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